Premier League · 2023/24
2024-03-11 · 20:00
11.9449.4%
X4.0823.5%
23.5427.1%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Chelsea
LLDLDWWWWL
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM
Newcastle
DDLLLLLWWL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM

Goals

1.60
Scored
1.40
1.70
Conceded
2.50
50%
Over 2.5
80%
50%
BTTS
70%

By half

1.40
1H goals
1.50
1.90
2H goals
2.40
90%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

6.00N=10
For
4.30N=10
4.40
Against
6.00
10.40
Total
10.30
Signals

Key historical patterns

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

strongOver 8.5 corners

7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.60
Goals scored
1.40
1.70
Goals conceded
2.50
3.30
Total goals
3.90
70%7/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
50%5/10
Over 2.5
80%8/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
BTTS
70%7/10
Matchup

Chelsea attack

1.60goals per match
Newcastle conceded2.50
Matchup

Newcastle attack

1.40goals per match
Chelsea conceded1.70
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.60
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.90
60%6/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.80
2H goals scored
0.80
1.10
2H goals conceded
1.60
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
60%6/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
6.00N=10
Corners for
4.30N=10
4.40
Corners against
6.00
10.40
Match total
10.30
70%7/10
Over 8.5
70%7/10
60%6/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
70%7/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.90N=10
For
2.00N=10
5.90
Match total
4.10
100%10/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

11.60N=10
Committed
10.10N=10
23.40
Match total
22.80

Shots

14.00N=10
Shots
9.70N=10
4.60
On target
3.60
11%
Conversion
14%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches29
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home49.4%44.8%-4.6 pp
Draw23.5%31.0%+7.5 pp
Away27.1%24.1%-2.9 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.582.8%
Over 2.551.7%
Over 3.531.0%
BTTS62.1%

Historical average

1.721.31

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-113.8%
2-013.8%
2-210.3%
1-210.3%
2-16.9%

Comparable corner averages

6.284.07
Average total10.34

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=29.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.569.0%
Over 9.555.2%
Over 10.544.8%
Over 11.531.0%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches15
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT53.3%30.1%–75.2% CI
Draw FT40.0%19.8%–64.3% CI
Away FT6.7%1.2%–29.8% CI

Remaining goals

1.47

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal93.3%
2+ goals40.0%
3+ goals6.7%

Who scores in 2H

Home86.7%
Away40.0%