Premier League · 2022/23
2023-05-28 · 16:30
12.8733.4%
X3.6426.3%
22.3840.3%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Chelsea
WDLWDLDLLD
2W 4D 4L · 1.00 PPM
Newcastle
DDDLWWWLWD
4W 4D 2L · 1.60 PPM
Goals
0.70
Scored
1.60
1.10
Conceded
1.20
30%
Over 2.5
60%
30%
BTTS
60%
By half
0.60
1H goals
1.30
1.20
2H goals
1.50
70%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
6.30N=10
For
7.00N=10
4.20
Against
4.80
10.50
Total
11.80
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
0.70
Goals scored
1.60
1.10
Goals conceded
1.20
1.80
Total goals
2.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Chelsea attack
0.70goals per matchNewcastle conceded1.20Matchup
Newcastle attack
1.60goals per matchChelsea conceded1.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.10
1H goals scored
0.60
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.60
2H goals scored
1.00
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.30N=10
Corners for
7.00N=10
4.20
Corners against
4.80
10.50
Match total
11.80
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.00N=10
For
1.90N=10
4.90
Match total
4.40
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.90N=10
Committed
11.70N=10
25.30
Match total
23.10
Shots
15.30N=10
Shots
12.50N=10
4.60
On target
4.80
5%
Conversion
13%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches145
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home33.4%29.0%-4.4 pp
Draw26.3%33.8%+7.5 pp
Away40.3%37.2%-3.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.579.3%
Over 2.556.6%
Over 3.535.2%
BTTS63.4%
Historical average
1.32–1.57
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-113.1%
2-210.3%
2-19.0%
1-28.3%
0-07.6%
Comparable corner averages
4.97–4.67
Average total9.64
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=144.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.563.2%
Over 9.551.4%
Over 10.536.8%
Over 11.527.1%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches33
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT18.2%8.6%–34.4% CI
Draw FT48.5%32.5%–64.8% CI
Away FT33.3%19.8%–50.4% CI
Remaining goals
1.15
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal66.7%
2+ goals39.4%
3+ goals6.1%
Who scores in 2H
Home33.3%
Away51.5%