Premier League · 2022/23
2023-05-20 · 17:30
15.3717.9%
X4.4521.6%
21.5960.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Nott'm Forest
DWWDDLDLWW
4W 4D 2L · 1.60 PPM
Arsenal
WWLWWWDDLW
6W 2D 2L · 2.00 PPM
Goals
1.60
Scored
2.10
1.30
Conceded
1.30
40%
Over 2.5
60%
70%
BTTS
50%
By half
1.60
1H goals
1.90
1.30
2H goals
1.50
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
2.20N=10
For
5.00N=10
5.90
Against
4.60
8.10
Total
9.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.60
Goals scored
2.10
1.30
Goals conceded
1.30
2.90
Total goals
3.40
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Nott'm Forest attack
1.60goals per matchArsenal conceded1.30Matchup
Arsenal attack
2.10goals per matchNott'm Forest conceded1.30Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
1.30
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.80
2H goals scored
0.80
0.50
2H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
2.20N=10
Corners for
5.00N=10
5.90
Corners against
4.60
8.10
Match total
9.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.40N=10
For
1.70N=10
4.30
Match total
4.00
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.40N=10
Committed
10.00N=10
23.60
Match total
22.40
Shots
9.60N=10
Shots
12.60N=10
3.60
On target
4.70
17%
Conversion
17%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches82
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home17.9%19.5%+1.6 pp
Draw21.6%19.5%-2.1 pp
Away60.5%61.0%+0.5 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.580.5%
Over 2.554.9%
Over 3.532.9%
BTTS51.2%
Historical average
0.98–1.99
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-112.2%
0-212.2%
1-18.5%
1-28.5%
2-17.3%
Comparable corner averages
3.77–6.12
Average total9.89
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=82.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.563.4%
Over 9.553.7%
Over 10.541.5%
Over 11.529.3%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches20
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT20.0%8.1%–41.6% CI
Draw FT35.0%18.1%–56.7% CI
Away FT45.0%25.8%–65.8% CI
Remaining goals
1.40
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal75.0%
2+ goals45.0%
3+ goals15.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home35.0%
Away60.0%