Premier League · 2022/23
2023-05-14 · 16:30
11.7754.3%
X4.1922.9%
24.2122.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Arsenal
DWDLWWWWDW
6W 3D 1L · 2.10 PPM
Brighton
WWWDDDWLWL
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Goals
2.60
Scored
2.10
1.40
Conceded
1.50
80%
Over 2.5
80%
80%
BTTS
90%
By half
1.60
1H goals
1.80
2.40
2H goals
1.80
90%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
7.00N=10
For
5.90N=10
2.90
Against
3.50
9.90
Total
9.40
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongOver 2.5 goals
8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
very strongBoth teams scored
8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.60
Goals scored
2.10
1.40
Goals conceded
1.50
4.00
Total goals
3.60
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Arsenal attack
2.60goals per matchBrighton conceded1.50Matchup
Brighton attack
2.10goals per matchArsenal conceded1.40Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.10
1H goals scored
1.10
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.50
2H goals scored
1.00
0.90
2H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
7.00N=10
Corners for
5.90N=10
2.90
Corners against
3.50
9.90
Match total
9.40
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
0.80N=10
For
1.00N=10
3.30
Match total
2.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
8.80N=10
Committed
9.90N=10
20.40
Match total
20.60
Shots
19.00N=10
Shots
16.50N=10
5.80
On target
6.00
14%
Conversion
13%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches80
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home54.3%60.0%+5.7 pp
Draw22.9%21.3%-1.7 pp
Away22.8%18.8%-4.1 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.588.8%
Over 2.562.5%
Over 3.541.3%
BTTS65.0%
Historical average
2.09–1.15
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-112.5%
1-112.5%
2-011.3%
1-07.5%
3-16.3%
Comparable corner averages
5.67–4.38
Average total10.05
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=80.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.0%
Over 9.555.0%
Over 10.537.5%
Over 11.528.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches16
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT50.0%28.0%–72.0% CI
Draw FT37.5%18.5%–61.4% CI
Away FT12.5%3.5%–36.0% CI
Remaining goals
2.00
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal87.5%
2+ goals62.5%
3+ goals31.3%
Who scores in 2H
Home75.0%
Away56.3%