Premier League · 2022/23
2023-05-06 · 15:00
11.1782.5%
X8.4111.5%
215.946.1%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Man City
LDWWWWWWWW
8W 1D 1L · 2.50 PPM
Leeds
DLLDLLWLLL
1W 2D 7L · 0.50 PPM
Goals
2.80
Scored
1.00
0.90
Conceded
1.90
80%
Over 2.5
60%
70%
BTTS
60%
By half
1.70
1H goals
0.80
2.00
2H goals
2.10
100%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
6.60N=10
For
5.10N=10
3.00
Against
4.50
9.60
Total
9.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
moderateBoth teams scored
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.80
Goals scored
1.00
0.90
Goals conceded
1.90
3.70
Total goals
2.90
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Man City attack
2.80goals per matchLeeds conceded1.90Matchup
Leeds attack
1.00goals per matchMan City conceded0.90Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.30
1H goals scored
0.30
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.50
2H goals scored
0.70
0.50
2H goals conceded
1.40
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.60N=10
Corners for
5.10N=10
3.00
Corners against
4.50
9.60
Match total
9.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.50N=10
For
2.60N=10
3.50
Match total
4.50
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.10N=10
Committed
11.60N=10
21.40
Match total
22.90
Shots
16.10N=10
Shots
10.40N=10
6.20
On target
3.00
17%
Conversion
10%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches44
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home82.5%84.1%+1.6 pp
Draw11.5%6.8%-4.7 pp
Away6.1%9.1%+3.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.595.5%
Over 2.581.8%
Over 3.563.6%
BTTS59.1%
Historical average
3.23–0.91
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
3-113.6%
2-013.6%
2-19.1%
5-06.8%
4-06.8%
Comparable corner averages
7.66–2.59
Average total10.25
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=44.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.563.6%
Over 9.561.4%
Over 10.556.8%
Over 11.538.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches11
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT90.9%62.3%–98.4% CI
Draw FT0.0%0.0%–25.9% CI
Away FT9.1%1.6%–37.7% CI
Remaining goals
2.27
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal100.0%
2+ goals72.7%
3+ goals36.4%
Who scores in 2H
Home90.9%
Away27.3%