Premier League · 2022/23
2023-04-21 · 20:00
11.2080.1%
X7.1813.4%
214.726.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Arsenal
WWDWDLWWWW
7W 2D 1L · 2.30 PPM
Southampton
WLLLWLWLDL
3W 1D 6L · 1.00 PPM
Goals
2.80
Scored
0.60
1.10
Conceded
1.20
80%
Over 2.5
40%
70%
BTTS
30%
By half
1.20
1H goals
1.20
2.70
2H goals
0.60
90%
Goal in 2H
40%
Corners
7.20N=10
For
3.40N=10
3.40
Against
6.40
10.60
Total
9.80
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.80
Goals scored
0.60
1.10
Goals conceded
1.20
3.90
Total goals
1.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Arsenal attack
2.80goals per matchSouthampton conceded1.20Matchup
Southampton attack
0.60goals per matchArsenal conceded1.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.30
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
2.00
2H goals scored
0.30
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
7.20N=10
Corners for
3.40N=10
3.40
Corners against
6.40
10.60
Match total
9.80
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
0.70N=10
For
2.60N=10
2.80
Match total
3.80
Over 3.5
Fouls
9.00N=10
Committed
13.10N=10
20.70
Match total
23.80
Shots
18.90N=10
Shots
11.00N=10
5.70
On target
4.00
15%
Conversion
5%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches72
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home80.1%80.6%+0.5 pp
Draw13.4%13.9%+0.5 pp
Away6.5%5.6%-1.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.583.3%
Over 2.561.1%
Over 3.533.3%
BTTS41.7%
Historical average
2.50–0.60
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
3-013.9%
2-112.5%
2-011.1%
1-011.1%
1-18.3%
Comparable corner averages
7.65–2.72
Average total10.38
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=72.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.570.8%
Over 9.558.3%
Over 10.541.7%
Over 11.530.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT47.4%27.3%–68.3% CI
Draw FT31.6%15.4%–54.0% CI
Away FT21.1%8.5%–43.3% CI
Remaining goals
2.00
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal84.2%
2+ goals63.2%
3+ goals31.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home68.4%
Away47.4%