Premier League · 2022/23
2023-04-15 · 12:30
13.6126.7%
X3.4228.1%
22.1345.2%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Aston Villa
WWLDWLLWWW
6W 1D 3L · 1.90 PPM
Newcastle
WWWDDDLWWW
6W 3D 1L · 2.10 PPM

Goals

2.10
Scored
1.90
1.40
Conceded
0.80
70%
Over 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
60%

By half

2.00
1H goals
1.50
1.50
2H goals
1.20
90%
Goal in 2H
60%

Corners

4.20N=10
For
6.20N=10
6.60
Against
5.50
10.80
Total
11.70
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

moderateBoth teams scored

6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

moderateAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

strongOver 8.5 corners

7/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
2.10
Goals scored
1.90
1.40
Goals conceded
0.80
3.50
Total goals
2.70
90%9/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
60%6/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Aston Villa attack

2.10goals per match
Newcastle conceded0.80
Matchup

Newcastle attack

1.90goals per match
Aston Villa conceded1.40
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
1.20
1H goals scored
1.00
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.50
90%9/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
60%6/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
0.90
2H goals scored
0.90
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.30
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
60%6/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
20%2/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.20N=10
Corners for
6.20N=10
6.60
Corners against
5.50
10.80
Match total
11.70
70%7/10
Over 8.5
100%10/10
60%6/10
Over 9.5
100%10/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
80%8/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.50N=10
For
1.70N=10
3.70
Match total
4.10
60%6/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10

Fouls

9.70N=10
Committed
10.40N=10
21.30
Match total
20.90

Shots

12.30N=10
Shots
11.60N=10
5.20
On target
4.70
17%
Conversion
16%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches246
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home26.7%23.2%-3.5 pp
Draw28.1%25.2%-2.9 pp
Away45.2%51.6%+6.4 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.569.5%
Over 2.549.2%
Over 3.523.6%
BTTS52.0%

Historical average

1.011.50

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-114.2%
1-212.2%
1-111.4%
0-08.9%
0-27.3%

Comparable corner averages

4.734.91
Average total9.64

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=246.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.561.4%
Over 9.552.4%
Over 10.541.9%
Over 11.528.5%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches72
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT22.2%14.2%–33.1% CI
Draw FT41.7%31.0%–53.2% CI
Away FT36.1%26.0%–47.6% CI

Remaining goals

1.31

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal69.4%
2+ goals38.9%
3+ goals15.3%

Who scores in 2H

Home38.9%
Away54.2%