Premier League · 2022/23
2023-04-08 · 17:30
112.487.7%
X6.1915.5%
21.2576.8%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Southampton
DDLLLLLWLD
1W 3D 6L · 0.60 PPM
Man City
LWWWLLWDWW
6W 1D 3L · 1.90 PPM

Goals

0.90
Scored
1.50
1.80
Conceded
0.80
40%
Over 2.5
40%
60%
BTTS
50%

By half

1.00
1H goals
0.80
1.70
2H goals
1.50
80%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

5.40N=10
For
5.60N=10
3.80
Against
2.60
9.20
Total
8.20
Signals

Key historical patterns

very strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
0.90
Goals scored
1.50
1.80
Goals conceded
0.80
2.70
Total goals
2.30
70%7/10
Over 1.5
50%5/10
40%4/10
Over 2.5
40%4/10
30%3/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
60%6/10
BTTS
50%5/10
Matchup

Southampton attack

0.90goals per match
Man City conceded0.80
Matchup

Man City attack

1.50goals per match
Southampton conceded1.80
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.60
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.20
90%9/10
Over 0.5 1H
50%5/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
0.60
2H goals scored
0.90
1.10
2H goals conceded
0.60
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
60%6/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
5.40N=10
Corners for
5.60N=10
3.80
Corners against
2.60
9.20
Match total
8.20
40%4/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
40%4/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
70%7/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.60N=10
For
1.40N=10
3.10
Match total
3.40
30%3/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10

Fouls

11.80N=10
Committed
10.60N=10
21.80
Match total
21.50

Shots

12.00N=10
Shots
15.80N=10
4.00
On target
5.00
8%
Conversion
9%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches22
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home7.7%9.1%+1.4 pp
Draw15.5%9.1%-6.4 pp
Away76.8%81.8%+5.0 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.568.2%
Over 2.536.4%
Over 3.527.3%
BTTS36.4%

Historical average

0.642.05

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-222.7%
0-122.7%
1-59.1%
1-29.1%
0-44.5%

Comparable corner averages

3.827.50
Average total11.32

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=22.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.572.7%
Over 9.563.6%
Over 10.554.5%
Over 11.545.5%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches10
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT20.0%5.7%–51.0% CI
Draw FT20.0%5.7%–51.0% CI
Away FT60.0%31.3%–83.2% CI

Remaining goals

1.50

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal90.0%
2+ goals40.0%
3+ goals10.0%

Who scores in 2H

Home30.0%
Away70.0%