Premier League · 2022/23
2023-02-18 · 12:30
14.4321.7%
X3.7125.9%
21.8452.3%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Aston Villa
LDWLWWLDWL
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM
Arsenal
WLWWDWWWWL
7W 1D 2L · 2.20 PPM

Goals

1.50
Scored
1.80
1.40
Conceded
0.70
50%
Over 2.5
40%
60%
BTTS
30%

By half

1.70
1H goals
1.10
1.20
2H goals
1.40
90%
Goal in 2H
80%

Corners

4.50N=10
For
4.10N=10
4.90
Against
5.10
9.40
Total
9.20
Signals

Key historical patterns

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
1.80
1.40
Goals conceded
0.70
2.90
Total goals
2.50
80%8/10
Over 1.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
Over 2.5
40%4/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
60%6/10
BTTS
30%3/10
Matchup

Aston Villa attack

1.50goals per match
Arsenal conceded0.70
Matchup

Arsenal attack

1.80goals per match
Aston Villa conceded1.40
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
1.00
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.10
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
40%4/10
Leading at HT
60%6/10
0.60
2H goals scored
0.80
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.60
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
80%8/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
50%5/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.50N=10
Corners for
4.10N=10
4.90
Corners against
5.10
9.40
Match total
9.20
50%5/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
40%4/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
30%3/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.40N=10
For
1.90N=10
2.80
Match total
4.50
40%4/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10

Fouls

9.70N=10
Committed
10.10N=10
20.20
Match total
21.80

Shots

12.10N=10
Shots
13.50N=10
4.80
On target
4.40
12%
Conversion
13%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches118
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home21.7%20.3%-1.4 pp
Draw25.9%21.2%-4.8 pp
Away52.3%58.5%+6.2 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.563.6%
Over 2.540.7%
Over 3.525.4%
BTTS42.4%

Historical average

0.821.56

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-115.3%
1-014.4%
0-211.9%
1-211.0%
1-19.3%

Comparable corner averages

4.145.59
Average total9.74

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=118.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.565.3%
Over 9.548.3%
Over 10.535.6%
Over 11.526.3%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches39
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT23.1%12.6%–38.3% CI
Draw FT28.2%16.5%–43.8% CI
Away FT48.7%33.9%–63.8% CI

Remaining goals

1.15

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal79.5%
2+ goals25.6%
3+ goals7.7%

Who scores in 2H

Home38.5%
Away56.4%