Premier League · 2021/22
2022-05-22 · 16:00
11.1782.3%
X7.8912.2%
217.635.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Chelsea
DDDWWLLWDD
3W 5D 2L · 1.40 PPM
Watford
DDLWDLWLLL
2W 3D 5L · 0.90 PPM
Goals
1.40
Scored
0.50
1.50
Conceded
1.50
40%
Over 2.5
30%
70%
BTTS
30%
By half
1.10
1H goals
1.20
1.80
2H goals
0.80
80%
Goal in 2H
60%
Corners
7.60N=10
For
4.40N=10
3.30
Against
7.10
10.90
Total
11.50
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.40
Goals scored
0.50
1.50
Goals conceded
1.50
2.90
Total goals
2.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Chelsea attack
1.40goals per matchWatford conceded1.50Matchup
Watford attack
0.50goals per matchChelsea conceded1.50Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.30
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.80
2H goals scored
0.20
1.00
2H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
7.60N=10
Corners for
4.40N=10
3.30
Corners against
7.10
10.90
Match total
11.50
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.20N=10
For
1.20N=10
3.70
Match total
2.70
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.30N=10
Committed
9.70N=10
21.40
Match total
18.90
Shots
16.90N=10
Shots
8.70N=10
5.90
On target
2.70
8%
Conversion
6%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches38
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home82.3%84.2%+1.9 pp
Draw12.2%10.5%-1.7 pp
Away5.5%5.3%-0.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.589.5%
Over 2.560.5%
Over 3.550.0%
BTTS31.6%
Historical average
2.89–0.47
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-026.3%
5-013.2%
3-17.9%
4-07.9%
6-05.3%
Comparable corner averages
8.97–2.62
Average total11.59
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=37.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.581.1%
Over 9.575.7%
Over 10.559.5%
Over 11.545.9%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches10
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT80.0%49.0%–94.3% CI
Draw FT10.0%1.8%–40.4% CI
Away FT10.0%1.8%–40.4% CI
Remaining goals
1.70
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal90.0%
2+ goals60.0%
3+ goals10.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home80.0%
Away20.0%