Premier League · 2020/21
2021-03-12 · 20:00
13.8025.3%
X3.3328.8%
22.0945.9%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Newcastle
WLWDDLLLWD
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Aston Villa
WWDLLLWDWL
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM

Goals

1.20
Scored
1.00
1.40
Conceded
0.90
60%
Over 2.5
30%
80%
BTTS
30%

By half

1.10
1H goals
0.70
1.50
2H goals
1.20
80%
Goal in 2H
60%

Corners

4.70N=10
For
5.00N=10
5.60
Against
6.50
10.30
Total
11.50
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

strongOver 8.5 corners

7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.00
1.40
Goals conceded
0.90
2.60
Total goals
1.90
90%9/10
Over 1.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
Over 2.5
30%3/10
10%1/10
Over 3.5
10%1/10
80%8/10
BTTS
30%3/10
Matchup

Newcastle attack

1.20goals per match
Aston Villa conceded0.90
Matchup

Aston Villa attack

1.00goals per match
Newcastle conceded1.40
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
0.40
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.30
60%6/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
20%2/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
0.70
2H goals scored
0.60
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.60
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
60%6/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
50%5/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.70N=10
Corners for
5.00N=10
5.60
Corners against
6.50
10.30
Match total
11.50
70%7/10
Over 8.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.50N=10
For
1.50N=10
3.60
Match total
3.30
50%5/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

10.10N=10
Committed
9.50N=10
22.90
Match total
25.10

Shots

12.70N=10
Shots
11.30N=10
4.20
On target
4.60
9%
Conversion
9%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches24
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home25.3%20.8%-4.4 pp
Draw28.8%25.0%-3.8 pp
Away45.9%54.2%+8.2 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.562.5%
Over 2.525.0%
Over 3.58.3%
BTTS37.5%

Historical average

0.791.21

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-120.8%
1-116.7%
2-012.5%
1-212.5%
0-08.3%

Comparable corner averages

3.634.33
Average total7.96

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=24.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.537.5%
Over 9.529.2%
Over 10.525.0%
Over 11.516.7%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT21.1%8.5%–43.3% CI
Draw FT42.1%23.1%–63.7% CI
Away FT36.8%19.1%–59.0% CI

Remaining goals

1.37

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal84.2%
2+ goals42.1%
3+ goals10.5%

Who scores in 2H

Home57.9%
Away63.2%