Premier League · 2019/20
2020-07-21 · 20:15
13.2429.5%
X3.7825.3%
22.1145.3%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Aston Villa
LWLWLDLLLW
3W 1D 6L · 1.00 PPM
Arsenal
DDDDDLLWWL
2W 5D 3L · 1.10 PPM
Goals
1.00
Scored
1.00
1.90
Conceded
1.10
60%
Over 2.5
40%
50%
BTTS
50%
By half
1.40
1H goals
0.80
1.50
2H goals
1.30
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
5.60N=10
For
4.80N=10
4.90
Against
6.40
10.50
Total
11.20
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.00
Goals scored
1.00
1.90
Goals conceded
1.10
2.90
Total goals
2.10
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Aston Villa attack
1.00goals per matchArsenal conceded1.10Matchup
Arsenal attack
1.00goals per matchAston Villa conceded1.90Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.40
1.10
1H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.70
2H goals scored
0.60
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.60N=10
Corners for
4.80N=10
4.90
Corners against
6.40
10.50
Match total
11.20
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.80N=10
For
2.50N=10
3.50
Match total
4.60
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.30N=10
Committed
11.40N=10
27.10
Match total
21.60
Shots
12.50N=10
Shots
9.20N=10
3.90
On target
3.20
8%
Conversion
11%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches33
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home29.5%27.3%-2.2 pp
Draw25.3%21.2%-4.1 pp
Away45.3%51.5%+6.3 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.587.9%
Over 2.563.6%
Over 3.536.4%
BTTS75.8%
Historical average
1.33–2.00
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-118.2%
1-115.2%
2-412.1%
1-39.1%
1-29.1%
Comparable corner averages
4.79–5.06
Average total9.85
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=33.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.557.6%
Over 9.545.5%
Over 10.539.4%
Over 11.533.3%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches11
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT36.4%15.2%–64.6% CI
Draw FT18.2%5.1%–47.7% CI
Away FT45.5%21.3%–72.0% CI
Remaining goals
2.09
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal90.9%
2+ goals72.7%
3+ goals45.5%
Who scores in 2H
Home63.6%
Away81.8%