Premier League · 2019/20
2020-07-21 · 18:00
18.6211.1%
X5.6017.1%
21.3371.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Watford
WWWDLWDLWW
6W 2D 2L · 2.00 PPM
Man City
WLWWLWLLLW
5W 0D 5L · 1.50 PPM
Goals
1.80
Scored
1.90
1.00
Conceded
1.10
70%
Over 2.5
50%
60%
BTTS
30%
By half
1.00
1H goals
1.30
1.80
2H goals
1.70
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
3.60N=10
For
7.20N=10
4.40
Against
2.90
8.00
Total
10.10
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
1.90
1.00
Goals conceded
1.10
2.80
Total goals
3.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Watford attack
1.80goals per matchMan City conceded1.10Matchup
Man City attack
1.90goals per matchWatford conceded1.00Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
1.00
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.30
2H goals scored
0.90
0.50
2H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
3.60N=10
Corners for
7.20N=10
4.40
Corners against
2.90
8.00
Match total
10.10
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.90N=10
For
1.90N=10
3.60
Match total
3.30
Over 3.5
Fouls
14.50N=10
Committed
10.80N=10
25.70
Match total
20.10
Shots
12.20N=10
Shots
16.70N=10
3.40
On target
5.70
15%
Conversion
11%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches16
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home11.1%12.5%+1.4 pp
Draw17.1%18.8%+1.7 pp
Away71.8%68.8%-3.1 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.581.3%
Over 2.575.0%
Over 3.556.3%
BTTS56.3%
Historical average
1.00–2.69
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-418.8%
0-112.5%
1-212.5%
0-56.3%
2-46.3%
Comparable corner averages
3.94–6.25
Average total10.19
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=16.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.568.8%
Over 9.550.0%
Over 10.543.8%
Over 11.531.3%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches11
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT9.1%1.6%–37.7% CI
Draw FT36.4%15.2%–64.6% CI
Away FT54.5%28.0%–78.7% CI
Remaining goals
2.09
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal90.9%
2+ goals54.5%
3+ goals18.2%
Who scores in 2H
Home45.5%
Away81.8%