Premier League · 2019/20
2020-06-21 · 16:15
16.0016.0%
X4.5021.3%
21.5362.7%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Aston Villa
WLWLLWLWLD
4W 1D 5L · 1.30 PPM
Chelsea
WWLLWWDLDD
4W 3D 3L · 1.50 PPM

Goals

1.30
Scored
1.70
2.00
Conceded
1.50
70%
Over 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
80%

By half

1.80
1H goals
1.20
1.50
2H goals
2.00
80%
Goal in 2H
80%

Corners

7.20N=10
For
6.00N=10
5.70
Against
3.40
12.90
Total
9.40
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

strongBoth teams scored

7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.30
Goals scored
1.70
2.00
Goals conceded
1.50
3.30
Total goals
3.20
80%8/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10
70%7/10
BTTS
80%8/10
Matchup

Aston Villa attack

1.30goals per match
Chelsea conceded1.50
Matchup

Chelsea attack

1.70goals per match
Aston Villa conceded2.00
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.80
1.20
1H goals conceded
0.40
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
20%2/10
Leading at HT
50%5/10
0.70
2H goals scored
0.90
0.80
2H goals conceded
1.10
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
80%8/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
70%7/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
7.20N=10
Corners for
6.00N=10
5.70
Corners against
3.40
12.90
Match total
9.40
90%9/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
80%8/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
80%8/10
Team over 4.5
70%7/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.00N=10
For
2.00N=10
3.50
Match total
4.70
30%3/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

12.20N=10
Committed
10.90N=10
25.30
Match total
20.60

Shots

14.60N=10
Shots
14.90N=10
4.40
On target
4.80
9%
Conversion
11%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches10
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home16.0%20.0%+4.0 pp
Draw21.3%10.0%-11.3 pp
Away62.7%70.0%+7.3 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.570.0%
Over 2.570.0%
Over 3.540.0%
BTTS50.0%

Historical average

0.802.10

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-220.0%
0-120.0%
2-110.0%
2-210.0%
0-410.0%

Comparable corner averages

3.207.60
Average total10.80

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=10.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.560.0%
Over 9.550.0%
Over 10.550.0%
Over 11.540.0%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches12
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT16.7%4.7%–44.8% CI
Draw FT25.0%8.9%–53.2% CI
Away FT58.3%32.0%–80.7% CI

Remaining goals

1.33

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal83.3%
2+ goals33.3%
3+ goals16.7%

Who scores in 2H

Home41.7%
Away66.7%