Premier League · 2019/20
2020-02-22 · 15:00
11.6458.5%
X4.2322.7%
25.1018.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Southampton
LLLWWLDWLL
3W 1D 6L · 1.00 PPM
Aston Villa
WLLDLLLWDL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM
Goals
1.10
Scored
1.30
2.40
Conceded
1.90
70%
Over 2.5
80%
70%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.90
1H goals
1.30
1.60
2H goals
1.90
80%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
5.00N=10
For
5.10N=10
5.50
Against
6.80
10.50
Total
11.90
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
strongBoth teams scored
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.10
Goals scored
1.30
2.40
Goals conceded
1.90
3.50
Total goals
3.20
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Southampton attack
1.10goals per matchAston Villa conceded1.90Matchup
Aston Villa attack
1.30goals per matchSouthampton conceded2.40Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
0.60
1.20
1H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.40
2H goals scored
0.70
1.20
2H goals conceded
1.20
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.00N=10
Corners for
5.10N=10
5.50
Corners against
6.80
10.50
Match total
11.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.20N=10
For
1.90N=10
2.70
Match total
4.10
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.50N=10
Committed
10.40N=10
21.30
Match total
23.80
Shots
10.30N=10
Shots
12.00N=10
3.70
On target
4.30
11%
Conversion
11%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches20
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home58.5%30.0%-28.5 pp
Draw22.7%30.0%+7.3 pp
Away18.8%40.0%+21.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.585.0%
Over 2.570.0%
Over 3.530.0%
BTTS65.0%
Historical average
1.70–1.45
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-220.0%
0-015.0%
1-115.0%
0-310.0%
3-05.0%
Comparable corner averages
7.15–3.90
Average total11.05
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=20.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.580.0%
Over 9.575.0%
Over 10.540.0%
Over 11.535.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches17
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT41.2%21.6%–64.0% CI
Draw FT41.2%21.6%–64.0% CI
Away FT17.6%6.2%–41.0% CI
Remaining goals
1.24
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal76.5%
2+ goals35.3%
3+ goals11.8%
Who scores in 2H
Home58.8%
Away41.2%