Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-16 · 20:30
11.5957.9%
X3.9323.4%
24.9218.7%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Famalicao
LWLWWWWWDD
6W 2D 2L · 2.00 PPM
Alverca
LLLLDDDWLL
1W 3D 6L · 0.60 PPM
Goals
2.00
Scored
0.80
0.90
Conceded
1.90
60%
Over 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
60%
By half
1.30
1H goals
1.30
1.60
2H goals
1.40
100%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
6.40N=10
For
5.20N=10
4.60
Against
5.80
11.00
Total
11.00
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
very strongOver 8.5 corners
8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.00
Goals scored
0.80
0.90
Goals conceded
1.90
2.90
Total goals
2.70
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Famalicao attack
2.00goals per matchAlverca conceded1.90Matchup
Alverca attack
0.80goals per matchFamalicao conceded0.90Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
0.40
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.30
2H goals scored
0.40
0.30
2H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.40N=10
Corners for
5.20N=10
4.60
Corners against
5.80
11.00
Match total
11.00
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.40N=10
For
2.50N=10
5.00
Match total
4.70
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.30N=10
Committed
11.40N=10
30.00
Match total
24.90
Shots
15.70N=10
Shots
9.60N=10
6.00
On target
3.90
13%
Conversion
8%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches263
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home57.9%59.3%+1.4 pp
Draw23.4%19.8%-3.6 pp
Away18.7%20.9%+2.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.581.7%
Over 2.558.6%
Over 3.532.7%
BTTS57.4%
Historical average
1.91–1.03
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-112.5%
2-010.3%
1-110.3%
1-08.7%
3-16.8%
Comparable corner averages
6.53–3.97
Average total10.51
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=263.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.570.3%
Over 9.559.7%
Over 10.547.9%
Over 11.535.4%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches62
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT50.0%37.9%–62.1% CI
Draw FT35.5%24.7%–47.9% CI
Away FT14.5%7.8%–25.3% CI
Remaining goals
1.56
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal83.9%
2+ goals48.4%
3+ goals19.4%
Who scores in 2H
Home71.0%
Away45.2%