Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-16 · 20:30
17.8111.9%
X5.3117.4%
21.3170.7%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Estoril
DWWWDWDLLL
4W 3D 3L · 1.50 PPM
Benfica
WDWDWWWDWD
6W 4D 0L · 2.20 PPM

Goals

1.90
Scored
1.90
1.50
Conceded
0.90
70%
Over 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
70%

By half

1.70
1H goals
1.30
1.70
2H goals
1.50
70%
Goal in 2H
80%

Corners

4.80N=10
For
8.20N=10
5.10
Against
2.90
9.90
Total
11.10
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

strongBoth teams scored

7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

strongAt least one second-half goal

7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.90
Goals scored
1.90
1.50
Goals conceded
0.90
3.40
Total goals
2.80
70%7/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
60%6/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
70%7/10
BTTS
70%7/10
Matchup

Estoril attack

1.90goals per match
Benfica conceded0.90
Matchup

Benfica attack

1.90goals per match
Estoril conceded1.50
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
1.00
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.30
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
60%6/10
1.00
2H goals scored
0.90
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.60
70%7/10
Over 0.5 2H
80%8/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
50%5/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.80N=10
Corners for
8.20N=10
5.10
Corners against
2.90
9.90
Match total
11.10
70%7/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
40%4/10
Over 9.5
60%6/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
70%7/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.90N=10
For
1.70N=10
3.80
Match total
4.70
70%7/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10

Fouls

12.80N=10
Committed
9.70N=10
24.50
Match total
26.90

Shots

11.10N=10
Shots
15.50N=10
4.50
On target
5.00
17%
Conversion
12%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches66
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home11.9%12.1%+0.3 pp
Draw17.4%16.7%-0.8 pp
Away70.7%71.2%+0.5 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.587.9%
Over 2.565.2%
Over 3.548.5%
BTTS62.1%

Historical average

1.032.70

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-213.6%
1-112.1%
0-110.6%
0-29.1%
0-47.6%

Comparable corner averages

3.396.68
Average total10.08

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=66.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.560.6%
Over 9.556.1%
Over 10.543.9%
Over 11.534.8%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches22
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT4.5%0.8%–21.8% CI
Draw FT22.7%10.1%–43.4% CI
Away FT72.7%51.8%–86.8% CI

Remaining goals

2.27

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal90.9%
2+ goals63.6%
3+ goals27.3%

Who scores in 2H

Home31.8%
Away86.4%