Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-16 · 20:30
17.8111.9%
X5.3117.4%
21.3170.7%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Estoril
DWWWDWDLLL
4W 3D 3L · 1.50 PPM
Benfica
WDWDWWWDWD
6W 4D 0L · 2.20 PPM
Goals
1.90
Scored
1.90
1.50
Conceded
0.90
70%
Over 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.70
1H goals
1.30
1.70
2H goals
1.50
70%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
4.80N=10
For
8.20N=10
5.10
Against
2.90
9.90
Total
11.10
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
strongBoth teams scored
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.90
Goals scored
1.90
1.50
Goals conceded
0.90
3.40
Total goals
2.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Estoril attack
1.90goals per matchBenfica conceded0.90Matchup
Benfica attack
1.90goals per matchEstoril conceded1.50Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
1.00
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.00
2H goals scored
0.90
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.80N=10
Corners for
8.20N=10
5.10
Corners against
2.90
9.90
Match total
11.10
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.90N=10
For
1.70N=10
3.80
Match total
4.70
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.80N=10
Committed
9.70N=10
24.50
Match total
26.90
Shots
11.10N=10
Shots
15.50N=10
4.50
On target
5.00
17%
Conversion
12%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches66
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home11.9%12.1%+0.3 pp
Draw17.4%16.7%-0.8 pp
Away70.7%71.2%+0.5 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.587.9%
Over 2.565.2%
Over 3.548.5%
BTTS62.1%
Historical average
1.03–2.70
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-213.6%
1-112.1%
0-110.6%
0-29.1%
0-47.6%
Comparable corner averages
3.39–6.68
Average total10.08
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=66.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.560.6%
Over 9.556.1%
Over 10.543.9%
Over 11.534.8%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches22
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT4.5%0.8%–21.8% CI
Draw FT22.7%10.1%–43.4% CI
Away FT72.7%51.8%–86.8% CI
Remaining goals
2.27
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal90.9%
2+ goals63.6%
3+ goals27.3%
Who scores in 2H
Home31.8%
Away86.4%