Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-16 · 18:00
11.6555.8%
X3.8224.1%
24.6020.0%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Casa Pia
DDDWWDDDLL
2W 6D 2L · 1.20 PPM
Rio Ave
WDLLLLWWWL
4W 1D 5L · 1.30 PPM
Goals
1.10
Scored
0.90
1.10
Conceded
1.80
30%
Over 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
30%
By half
1.10
1H goals
0.80
1.10
2H goals
1.90
60%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
2.60N=10
For
3.70N=10
6.70
Against
6.50
9.30
Total
10.20
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateAt least one second-half goal
6/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.10
Goals scored
0.90
1.10
Goals conceded
1.80
2.20
Total goals
2.70
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Casa Pia attack
1.10goals per matchRio Ave conceded1.80Matchup
Rio Ave attack
0.90goals per matchCasa Pia conceded1.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
0.20
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.40
2H goals scored
0.70
0.70
2H goals conceded
1.20
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
2.60N=10
Corners for
3.70N=10
6.70
Corners against
6.50
9.30
Match total
10.20
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
3.40N=10
For
3.10N=10
5.70
Match total
5.50
Over 3.5
Fouls
18.40N=10
Committed
11.80N=10
30.00
Match total
26.50
Shots
7.00N=10
Shots
8.00N=10
2.50
On target
3.60
16%
Conversion
11%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches729
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home55.8%59.9%+4.1 pp
Draw24.1%23.2%-0.9 pp
Away20.0%16.9%-3.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.575.3%
Over 2.553.8%
Over 3.529.2%
BTTS53.8%
Historical average
1.84–0.95
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-113.4%
1-011.7%
1-19.7%
2-09.5%
0-07.5%
Comparable corner averages
6.13–3.92
Average total10.05
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=729.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.563.9%
Over 9.552.8%
Over 10.541.3%
Over 11.531.3%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches214
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT46.3%39.7%–52.9% CI
Draw FT38.8%32.5%–45.5% CI
Away FT15.0%10.8%–20.3% CI
Remaining goals
1.38
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal74.3%
2+ goals39.3%
3+ goals17.3%
Who scores in 2H
Home61.2%
Away37.4%