Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-11 · 20:15
11.9148.2%
X3.3827.2%
23.7524.6%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Tondela
LWLDDDLDDL
1W 5D 4L · 0.80 PPM
Moreirense
DDWLLWDLDL
2W 4D 4L · 1.00 PPM

Goals

0.90
Scored
1.10
1.20
Conceded
1.60
40%
Over 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
60%

By half

1.00
1H goals
1.20
1.10
2H goals
1.50
70%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

4.80N=10
For
3.20N=10
6.30
Against
4.90
11.10
Total
8.10
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongAt least one second-half goal

7/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
0.90
Goals scored
1.10
1.20
Goals conceded
1.60
2.10
Total goals
2.70
60%6/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
40%4/10
Over 2.5
50%5/10
30%3/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
50%5/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Tondela attack

0.90goals per match
Moreirense conceded1.60
Matchup

Moreirense attack

1.10goals per match
Tondela conceded1.20
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.40
1H goals scored
0.50
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.70
50%5/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.50
2H goals scored
0.60
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.90
70%7/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.80N=10
Corners for
3.20N=10
6.30
Corners against
4.90
11.10
Match total
8.10
80%8/10
Over 8.5
40%4/10
80%8/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.90N=10
For
2.80N=10
5.30
Match total
5.30
80%8/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

14.70N=10
Committed
14.20N=10
26.90
Match total
31.20

Shots

11.10N=10
Shots
8.70N=10
3.30
On target
4.20
8%
Conversion
13%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches1,204
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home48.2%47.9%-0.3 pp
Draw27.2%27.9%+0.7 pp
Away24.6%24.2%-0.4 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.570.8%
Over 2.544.9%
Over 3.523.1%
BTTS50.2%

Historical average

1.460.99

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-112.5%
1-012.0%
2-010.0%
2-110.0%
0-09.4%

Comparable corner averages

5.604.20
Average total9.80

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=1,204.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.562.0%
Over 9.549.7%
Over 10.538.3%
Over 11.527.6%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches413
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitystrong
Home FT38.0%33.5%–42.8% CI
Draw FT37.0%32.5%–41.8% CI
Away FT24.9%21.0%–29.3% CI

Remaining goals

1.28

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal72.6%
2+ goals36.8%
3+ goals13.8%

Who scores in 2H

Home51.3%
Away40.7%