Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-11 · 20:15
19.649.5%
X5.8915.6%
21.2374.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Rio Ave
LWLLLDWLDD
2W 3D 5L · 0.90 PPM
Sp Lisbon
DWDWDWDWWD
5W 5D 0L · 2.00 PPM
Goals
0.90
Scored
2.00
1.40
Conceded
0.90
60%
Over 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
80%
By half
1.10
1H goals
1.00
1.20
2H goals
1.90
60%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
6.60N=10
For
6.50N=10
5.60
Against
3.20
12.20
Total
9.70
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateAt least one second-half goal
6/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
9/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
0.90
Goals scored
2.00
1.40
Goals conceded
0.90
2.30
Total goals
2.90
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Rio Ave attack
0.90goals per matchSp Lisbon conceded0.90Matchup
Sp Lisbon attack
2.00goals per matchRio Ave conceded1.40Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.80
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.20
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.60
2H goals scored
1.20
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.60N=10
Corners for
6.50N=10
5.60
Corners against
3.20
12.20
Match total
9.70
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.00N=10
For
3.10N=10
4.00
Match total
5.70
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.50N=10
Committed
13.20N=10
26.60
Match total
28.10
Shots
14.30N=10
Shots
13.50N=10
4.20
On target
5.20
6%
Conversion
15%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches71
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home9.5%7.0%-2.5 pp
Draw15.6%18.3%+2.7 pp
Away74.8%74.6%-0.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.587.3%
Over 2.562.0%
Over 3.542.3%
BTTS56.3%
Historical average
0.97–2.34
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-214.1%
1-211.3%
0-19.9%
1-19.9%
2-38.5%
Comparable corner averages
3.24–7.32
Average total10.56
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=71.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.560.6%
Over 9.554.9%
Over 10.552.1%
Over 11.543.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT5.3%0.9%–24.6% CI
Draw FT31.6%15.4%–54.0% CI
Away FT63.2%41.0%–80.9% CI
Remaining goals
1.89
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal89.5%
2+ goals68.4%
3+ goals21.1%
Who scores in 2H
Home36.8%
Away84.2%