Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-11 · 20:15
11.7253.5%
X3.6725.1%
24.3021.4%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Guimaraes
DLWLWWDLWW
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Casa Pia
LWLLDLDLLL
1W 2D 7L · 0.50 PPM
Goals
1.50
Scored
0.50
1.00
Conceded
1.90
50%
Over 2.5
60%
50%
BTTS
40%
By half
0.70
1H goals
1.00
1.80
2H goals
1.40
90%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
4.10N=10
For
4.90N=10
4.80
Against
6.80
8.90
Total
11.70
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
0.50
1.00
Goals conceded
1.90
2.50
Total goals
2.40
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Guimaraes attack
1.50goals per matchCasa Pia conceded1.90Matchup
Casa Pia attack
0.50goals per matchGuimaraes conceded1.00Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.20
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.20
2H goals scored
0.30
0.60
2H goals conceded
1.10
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.10N=10
Corners for
4.90N=10
4.80
Corners against
6.80
8.90
Match total
11.70
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.40N=10
For
2.20N=10
5.40
Match total
4.40
Over 3.5
Fouls
16.60N=10
Committed
15.60N=10
30.80
Match total
29.60
Shots
14.00N=10
Shots
9.30N=10
4.30
On target
2.80
11%
Conversion
5%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches764
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home53.5%57.5%+3.9 pp
Draw25.1%25.7%+0.6 pp
Away21.4%16.9%-4.5 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.575.1%
Over 2.552.4%
Over 3.527.9%
BTTS52.7%
Historical average
1.77–0.93
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-113.5%
1-012.7%
1-110.9%
2-09.8%
0-07.5%
Comparable corner averages
6.01–4.02
Average total10.03
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=764.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.563.9%
Over 9.552.7%
Over 10.541.6%
Over 11.532.3%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches223
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT46.2%39.8%–52.7% CI
Draw FT39.0%32.8%–45.5% CI
Away FT14.8%10.7%–20.1% CI
Remaining goals
1.34
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal74.4%
2+ goals39.9%
3+ goals15.2%
Who scores in 2H
Home62.8%
Away35.9%