Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-11 · 20:15
11.7253.5%
X3.6725.1%
24.3021.4%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Guimaraes
DLWLWWDLWW
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Casa Pia
LWLLDLDLLL
1W 2D 7L · 0.50 PPM

Goals

1.50
Scored
0.50
1.00
Conceded
1.90
50%
Over 2.5
60%
50%
BTTS
40%

By half

0.70
1H goals
1.00
1.80
2H goals
1.40
90%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

4.10N=10
For
4.90N=10
4.80
Against
6.80
8.90
Total
11.70
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
0.50
1.00
Goals conceded
1.90
2.50
Total goals
2.40
70%7/10
Over 1.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
20%2/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
50%5/10
BTTS
40%4/10
Matchup

Guimaraes attack

1.50goals per match
Casa Pia conceded1.90
Matchup

Casa Pia attack

0.50goals per match
Guimaraes conceded1.00
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.20
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.80
40%4/10
Over 0.5 1H
60%6/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
10%1/10
1.20
2H goals scored
0.30
0.60
2H goals conceded
1.10
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
80%8/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.10N=10
Corners for
4.90N=10
4.80
Corners against
6.80
8.90
Match total
11.70
50%5/10
Over 8.5
80%8/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
70%7/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.40N=10
For
2.20N=10
5.40
Match total
4.40
70%7/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

16.60N=10
Committed
15.60N=10
30.80
Match total
29.60

Shots

14.00N=10
Shots
9.30N=10
4.30
On target
2.80
11%
Conversion
5%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches764
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home53.5%57.5%+3.9 pp
Draw25.1%25.7%+0.6 pp
Away21.4%16.9%-4.5 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.575.1%
Over 2.552.4%
Over 3.527.9%
BTTS52.7%

Historical average

1.770.93

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

2-113.5%
1-012.7%
1-110.9%
2-09.8%
0-07.5%

Comparable corner averages

6.014.02
Average total10.03

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=764.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.563.9%
Over 9.552.7%
Over 10.541.6%
Over 11.532.3%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches223
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT46.2%39.8%–52.7% CI
Draw FT39.0%32.8%–45.5% CI
Away FT14.8%10.7%–20.1% CI

Remaining goals

1.34

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal74.4%
2+ goals39.9%
3+ goals15.2%

Who scores in 2H

Home62.8%
Away35.9%