Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-11 · 20:15
11.6954.6%
X3.6725.1%
24.5520.3%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Gil Vicente
DDWWWLDWLW
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Arouca
DLWWLLLWLL
3W 1D 6L · 1.00 PPM
Goals
2.00
Scored
1.00
1.10
Conceded
1.30
80%
Over 2.5
50%
70%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.30
1H goals
1.20
1.80
2H goals
1.10
100%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
5.80N=10
For
4.10N=10
3.70
Against
3.80
9.50
Total
7.90
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.00
Goals scored
1.00
1.10
Goals conceded
1.30
3.10
Total goals
2.30
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Gil Vicente attack
2.00goals per matchArouca conceded1.30Matchup
Arouca attack
1.00goals per matchGil Vicente conceded1.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
0.50
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.30
2H goals scored
0.50
0.50
2H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.80N=10
Corners for
4.10N=10
3.70
Corners against
3.80
9.50
Match total
7.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.50N=10
For
2.40N=10
4.80
Match total
4.30
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.10N=10
Committed
12.20N=10
27.60
Match total
24.30
Shots
15.30N=10
Shots
11.70N=10
5.90
On target
3.10
13%
Conversion
9%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches839
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home54.6%56.9%+2.3 pp
Draw25.1%26.0%+0.8 pp
Away20.3%17.2%-3.1 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.574.3%
Over 2.550.8%
Over 3.527.1%
BTTS51.8%
Historical average
1.74–0.92
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-113.2%
1-011.8%
1-111.1%
2-09.9%
0-08.2%
Comparable corner averages
6.09–3.93
Average total10.02
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=839.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.563.2%
Over 9.552.1%
Over 10.540.3%
Over 11.531.2%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches247
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT45.7%39.6%–52.0% CI
Draw FT38.5%32.6%–44.7% CI
Away FT15.8%11.8%–20.9% CI
Remaining goals
1.28
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal72.1%
2+ goals36.4%
3+ goals15.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home57.9%
Away34.8%