Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-11 · 20:15
13.5126.2%
X3.4226.9%
21.9646.9%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Estrela
WDDLWLDWLL
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Famalicao
LLWLLDWDDW
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM

Goals

1.40
Scored
0.80
1.60
Conceded
1.30
60%
Over 2.5
40%
40%
BTTS
30%

By half

1.20
1H goals
0.70
1.80
2H goals
1.40
90%
Goal in 2H
80%

Corners

3.20N=10
For
3.50N=10
5.80
Against
6.00
9.00
Total
9.50
Signals

Key historical patterns

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.40
Goals scored
0.80
1.60
Goals conceded
1.30
3.00
Total goals
2.10
70%7/10
Over 1.5
40%4/10
60%6/10
Over 2.5
40%4/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
40%4/10
BTTS
30%3/10
Matchup

Estrela attack

1.40goals per match
Famalicao conceded1.30
Matchup

Famalicao attack

0.80goals per match
Estrela conceded1.60
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.20
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.50
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
50%5/10
20%2/10
Leading at HT
0%0/10
0.80
2H goals scored
0.60
1.00
2H goals conceded
0.80
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
80%8/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
60%6/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
3.20N=10
Corners for
3.50N=10
5.80
Corners against
6.00
9.00
Match total
9.50
40%4/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
30%3/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
20%2/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.30N=10
For
2.10N=10
4.40
Match total
4.00
70%7/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

14.70N=10
Committed
15.40N=10
29.40
Match total
32.20

Shots

13.30N=10
Shots
7.70N=10
4.40
On target
3.00
11%
Conversion
10%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

medium · Tier A
Comparable matches404
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home26.2%21.8%-4.4 pp
Draw26.9%32.7%+5.8 pp
Away46.9%45.5%-1.4 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.575.7%
Over 2.551.7%
Over 3.528.7%
BTTS56.9%

Historical average

1.111.57

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-114.1%
0-110.1%
1-29.9%
0-09.7%
2-17.4%

Comparable corner averages

4.445.56
Average total10.00

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=404.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.565.8%
Over 9.553.0%
Over 10.539.4%
Over 11.530.4%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches128
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT21.1%14.9%–29.0% CI
Draw FT43.0%34.7%–51.6% CI
Away FT35.9%28.1%–44.5% CI

Remaining goals

1.38

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal69.5%
2+ goals43.8%
3+ goals21.1%

Who scores in 2H

Home37.5%
Away57.8%