Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-11 · 20:15
13.5126.2%
X3.4226.9%
21.9646.9%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Estrela
WDDLWLDWLL
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Famalicao
LLWLLDWDDW
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Goals
1.40
Scored
0.80
1.60
Conceded
1.30
60%
Over 2.5
40%
40%
BTTS
30%
By half
1.20
1H goals
0.70
1.80
2H goals
1.40
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
3.20N=10
For
3.50N=10
5.80
Against
6.00
9.00
Total
9.50
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.40
Goals scored
0.80
1.60
Goals conceded
1.30
3.00
Total goals
2.10
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Estrela attack
1.40goals per matchFamalicao conceded1.30Matchup
Famalicao attack
0.80goals per matchEstrela conceded1.60Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.20
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.80
2H goals scored
0.60
1.00
2H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
3.20N=10
Corners for
3.50N=10
5.80
Corners against
6.00
9.00
Match total
9.50
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.30N=10
For
2.10N=10
4.40
Match total
4.00
Over 3.5
Fouls
14.70N=10
Committed
15.40N=10
29.40
Match total
32.20
Shots
13.30N=10
Shots
7.70N=10
4.40
On target
3.00
11%
Conversion
10%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches404
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home26.2%21.8%-4.4 pp
Draw26.9%32.7%+5.8 pp
Away46.9%45.5%-1.4 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.575.7%
Over 2.551.7%
Over 3.528.7%
BTTS56.9%
Historical average
1.11–1.57
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-114.1%
0-110.1%
1-29.9%
0-09.7%
2-17.4%
Comparable corner averages
4.44–5.56
Average total10.00
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=404.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.8%
Over 9.553.0%
Over 10.539.4%
Over 11.530.4%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches128
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT21.1%14.9%–29.0% CI
Draw FT43.0%34.7%–51.6% CI
Away FT35.9%28.1%–44.5% CI
Remaining goals
1.38
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal69.5%
2+ goals43.8%
3+ goals21.1%
Who scores in 2H
Home37.5%
Away57.8%