Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-04 · 20:15
11.2573.9%
X5.6416.4%
29.459.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Sp Lisbon
WWWWWWWWLD
8W 1D 1L · 2.50 PPM
Guimaraes
WWDLLLLLDW
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Goals
3.00
Scored
1.00
0.70
Conceded
1.60
90%
Over 2.5
40%
40%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.60
1H goals
1.50
2.10
2H goals
1.10
100%
Goal in 2H
60%
Corners
7.10N=10
For
4.10N=10
2.90
Against
3.80
10.00
Total
7.90
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
3.00
Goals scored
1.00
0.70
Goals conceded
1.60
3.70
Total goals
2.60
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Sp Lisbon attack
3.00goals per matchGuimaraes conceded1.60Matchup
Guimaraes attack
1.00goals per matchSp Lisbon conceded0.70Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.40
1H goals scored
0.70
0.20
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.60
2H goals scored
0.30
0.50
2H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
7.10N=10
Corners for
4.10N=10
2.90
Corners against
3.80
10.00
Match total
7.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.60N=10
For
2.40N=10
3.70
Match total
5.00
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.70N=10
Committed
13.60N=10
25.40
Match total
30.10
Shots
19.10N=10
Shots
13.10N=10
7.40
On target
3.80
16%
Conversion
8%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches126
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home73.9%76.2%+2.3 pp
Draw16.4%14.3%-2.1 pp
Away9.8%9.5%-0.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.587.3%
Over 2.568.3%
Over 3.537.3%
BTTS55.6%
Historical average
2.44–0.83
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-119.0%
2-011.1%
1-07.9%
1-17.9%
4-07.1%
Comparable corner averages
7.14–3.17
Average total10.31
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=126.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.573.8%
Over 9.554.8%
Over 10.544.4%
Over 11.531.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches27
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT63.0%44.2%–78.5% CI
Draw FT25.9%13.2%–44.7% CI
Away FT11.1%3.9%–28.1% CI
Remaining goals
2.04
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal96.3%
2+ goals66.7%
3+ goals33.3%
Who scores in 2H
Home85.2%
Away55.6%