Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-03 · 15:30
12.2640.8%
X3.1529.2%
23.0730.0%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Casa Pia
LDDDWWDDDL
2W 6D 2L · 1.20 PPM
Tondela
DWLLLDWLLD
2W 3D 5L · 0.90 PPM

Goals

1.10
Scored
1.00
1.20
Conceded
2.00
30%
Over 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
40%

By half

1.10
1H goals
1.10
1.20
2H goals
1.90
60%
Goal in 2H
80%

Corners

2.50N=10
For
3.80N=10
6.90
Against
5.30
9.40
Total
9.10
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateAt least one second-half goal

6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.10
Goals scored
1.00
1.20
Goals conceded
2.00
2.30
Total goals
3.00
70%7/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
30%3/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
20%2/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
BTTS
40%4/10
Matchup

Casa Pia attack

1.10goals per match
Tondela conceded2.00
Matchup

Tondela attack

1.00goals per match
Casa Pia conceded1.20
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
0.50
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.60
60%6/10
Over 0.5 1H
60%6/10
40%4/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.40
2H goals scored
0.50
0.80
2H goals conceded
1.40
60%6/10
Over 0.5 2H
80%8/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
60%6/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
2.50N=10
Corners for
3.80N=10
6.90
Corners against
5.30
9.40
Match total
9.10
70%7/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
10%1/10
Team over 4.5
20%2/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

3.00N=10
For
2.50N=10
5.40
Match total
4.70
90%9/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

17.10N=10
Committed
14.80N=10
28.50
Match total
26.50

Shots

7.10N=10
Shots
8.00N=10
2.20
On target
2.80
15%
Conversion
13%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches1,478
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home40.8%41.9%+1.1 pp
Draw29.2%31.3%+2.0 pp
Away30.0%26.9%-3.1 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.568.0%
Over 2.540.3%
Over 3.522.5%
BTTS48.0%

Historical average

1.311.03

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-114.8%
1-012.8%
0-010.1%
0-19.1%
2-18.2%

Comparable corner averages

5.104.34
Average total9.43

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=1,477.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.559.0%
Over 9.547.3%
Over 10.535.3%
Over 11.524.9%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches526
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitystrong
Home FT31.6%27.7%–35.7% CI
Draw FT43.0%38.8%–47.2% CI
Away FT25.5%21.9%–29.4% CI

Remaining goals

1.26

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal71.7%
2+ goals36.7%
3+ goals12.9%

Who scores in 2H

Home51.0%
Away45.1%