Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-29 · 20:15
11.1282.4%
X7.8911.7%
215.635.9%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Sp Lisbon
WWWWWWWWWL
9W 0D 1L · 2.70 PPM
Tondela
LDWLLLDWLL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM
Goals
3.00
Scored
0.80
0.50
Conceded
2.10
80%
Over 2.5
60%
30%
BTTS
30%
By half
1.60
1H goals
1.30
1.90
2H goals
1.60
100%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
7.60N=10
For
4.00N=10
2.40
Against
5.40
10.00
Total
9.40
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
3.00
Goals scored
0.80
0.50
Goals conceded
2.10
3.50
Total goals
2.90
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Sp Lisbon attack
3.00goals per matchTondela conceded2.10Matchup
Tondela attack
0.80goals per matchSp Lisbon conceded0.50Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.40
1H goals scored
0.50
0.20
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.60
2H goals scored
0.30
0.30
2H goals conceded
1.30
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
7.60N=10
Corners for
4.00N=10
2.40
Corners against
5.40
10.00
Match total
9.40
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.50N=10
For
2.60N=10
3.40
Match total
5.30
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.00N=10
Committed
15.50N=10
24.90
Match total
27.10
Shots
20.20N=10
Shots
8.40N=10
7.70
On target
2.90
15%
Conversion
10%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches100
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home82.4%85.0%+2.6 pp
Draw11.7%11.0%-0.7 pp
Away5.9%4.0%-1.9 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.589.0%
Over 2.571.0%
Over 3.551.0%
BTTS49.0%
Historical average
2.92–0.70
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-013.0%
3-012.0%
3-112.0%
4-09.0%
1-08.0%
Comparable corner averages
8.62–2.63
Average total11.25
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=100.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.575.0%
Over 9.566.0%
Over 10.556.0%
Over 11.540.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT68.4%46.0%–84.6% CI
Draw FT26.3%11.8%–48.8% CI
Away FT5.3%0.9%–24.6% CI
Remaining goals
1.89
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal89.5%
2+ goals57.9%
3+ goals31.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home84.2%
Away36.8%