Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-26 · 20:30
116.785.5%
X8.8210.5%
21.1084.0%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
AVS
DLDLLLWDLD
1W 4D 5L · 0.70 PPM
Sp Lisbon
WDWDWDWDWW
6W 4D 0L · 2.20 PPM
Goals
0.80
Scored
2.10
1.40
Conceded
0.90
40%
Over 2.5
60%
40%
BTTS
80%
By half
1.00
1H goals
1.20
1.20
2H goals
1.80
70%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
4.30N=10
For
6.80N=10
5.60
Against
3.40
9.90
Total
10.20
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
0.80
Goals scored
2.10
1.40
Goals conceded
0.90
2.20
Total goals
3.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
AVS attack
0.80goals per matchSp Lisbon conceded0.90Matchup
Sp Lisbon attack
2.10goals per matchAVS conceded1.40Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.90
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.50
2H goals scored
1.20
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.30N=10
Corners for
6.80N=10
5.60
Corners against
3.40
9.90
Match total
10.20
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.70N=10
For
3.40N=10
5.30
Match total
6.40
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.30N=10
Committed
13.60N=10
24.60
Match total
28.10
Shots
12.30N=10
Shots
13.60N=10
3.80
On target
5.10
7%
Conversion
15%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches12
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home5.5%8.3%+2.8 pp
Draw10.5%8.3%-2.1 pp
Away84.0%83.3%-0.7 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.575.0%
Over 2.566.7%
Over 3.566.7%
BTTS58.3%
Historical average
0.92–3.33
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-125.0%
0-48.3%
1-78.3%
2-58.3%
1-58.3%
Comparable corner averages
2.83–8.50
Average total11.33
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=12.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.583.3%
Over 9.583.3%
Over 10.566.7%
Over 11.541.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches10
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT20.0%5.7%–51.0% CI
Draw FT40.0%16.8%–68.7% CI
Away FT40.0%16.8%–68.7% CI
Remaining goals
1.60
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal80.0%
2+ goals50.0%
3+ goals20.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home40.0%
Away60.0%