Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-26 · 18:00
19.0310.2%
X4.7419.4%
21.3170.4%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Estrela
DWDDLWLDWL
3W 4D 3L · 1.30 PPM
Porto
WWWWWLWDWW
8W 1D 1L · 2.50 PPM

Goals

1.40
Scored
1.70
1.50
Conceded
0.60
50%
Over 2.5
50%
40%
BTTS
40%

By half

1.10
1H goals
0.80
1.80
2H goals
1.50
90%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

3.40N=10
For
5.00N=10
5.80
Against
3.30
9.20
Total
8.30
Signals

Key historical patterns

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.40
Goals scored
1.70
1.50
Goals conceded
0.60
2.90
Total goals
2.30
70%7/10
Over 1.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
Over 2.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
40%4/10
BTTS
40%4/10
Matchup

Estrela attack

1.40goals per match
Porto conceded0.60
Matchup

Porto attack

1.70goals per match
Estrela conceded1.50
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.60
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.20
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
50%5/10
20%2/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
0.80
2H goals scored
1.10
1.00
2H goals conceded
0.40
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
60%6/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
3.40N=10
Corners for
5.00N=10
5.80
Corners against
3.30
9.20
Match total
8.30
40%4/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
30%3/10
Over 9.5
30%3/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.30N=10
For
2.40N=10
4.50
Match total
5.40
70%7/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

14.40N=10
Committed
14.40N=10
29.10
Match total
28.70

Shots

13.60N=10
Shots
13.30N=10
4.50
On target
5.10
10%
Conversion
13%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches60
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home10.2%11.7%+1.5 pp
Draw19.4%15.0%-4.4 pp
Away70.4%73.3%+3.0 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.578.3%
Over 2.556.7%
Over 3.525.0%
BTTS43.3%

Historical average

0.652.02

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-315.0%
0-113.3%
0-213.3%
1-211.7%
1-18.3%

Comparable corner averages

3.276.25
Average total9.52

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=60.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.565.0%
Over 9.546.7%
Over 10.533.3%
Over 11.523.3%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches17
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT11.8%3.3%–34.3% CI
Draw FT17.6%6.2%–41.0% CI
Away FT70.6%46.9%–86.7% CI

Remaining goals

1.82

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal88.2%
2+ goals58.8%
3+ goals29.4%

Who scores in 2H

Home29.4%
Away76.5%