Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-20 · 20:15
12.9231.5%
X3.2928.0%
22.2740.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Moreirense
LDLWWLLDLL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM
Estoril
WLLLWWLLWL
4W 0D 6L · 1.20 PPM
Goals
0.70
Scored
1.70
1.60
Conceded
1.90
50%
Over 2.5
80%
40%
BTTS
30%
By half
0.70
1H goals
1.80
1.60
2H goals
1.80
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
3.50N=10
For
4.80N=10
5.90
Against
4.40
9.40
Total
9.20
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
0.70
Goals scored
1.70
1.60
Goals conceded
1.90
2.30
Total goals
3.60
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Moreirense attack
0.70goals per matchEstoril conceded1.90Matchup
Estoril attack
1.70goals per matchMoreirense conceded1.60Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.20
1H goals scored
0.90
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.50
2H goals scored
0.80
1.10
2H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
3.50N=10
Corners for
4.80N=10
5.90
Corners against
4.40
9.40
Match total
9.20
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.10N=10
For
2.20N=10
3.90
Match total
4.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.40N=10
Committed
13.80N=10
28.70
Match total
26.30
Shots
7.40N=10
Shots
11.90N=10
2.10
On target
3.80
9%
Conversion
14%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches128
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home31.5%37.5%+6.0 pp
Draw28.0%29.7%+1.7 pp
Away40.5%32.8%-7.7 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.573.4%
Over 2.548.4%
Over 3.529.7%
BTTS55.5%
Historical average
1.35–1.32
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-113.3%
0-010.2%
2-19.4%
1-08.6%
0-17.8%
Comparable corner averages
5.13–4.95
Average total10.09
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=128.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.6%
Over 9.550.8%
Over 10.544.5%
Over 11.535.9%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches42
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT23.8%13.5%–38.5% CI
Draw FT50.0%35.5%–64.5% CI
Away FT26.2%15.3%–41.1% CI
Remaining goals
1.26
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal69.0%
2+ goals45.2%
3+ goals9.5%
Who scores in 2H
Home42.9%
Away50.0%