Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-19 · 20:30
11.1778.8%
X6.0915.1%
215.356.0%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Porto
WWWWWDWWWD
8W 2D 0L · 2.60 PPM
Tondela
WLDWLLLDWL
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Goals
2.10
Scored
1.00
0.60
Conceded
2.00
60%
Over 2.5
70%
50%
BTTS
40%
By half
0.90
1H goals
1.30
1.80
2H goals
1.70
80%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
5.30N=10
For
4.10N=10
2.40
Against
4.90
7.70
Total
9.00
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.10
Goals scored
1.00
0.60
Goals conceded
2.00
2.70
Total goals
3.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Porto attack
2.10goals per matchTondela conceded2.00Matchup
Tondela attack
1.00goals per matchPorto conceded0.60Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
0.50
0.00
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.20
2H goals scored
0.50
0.60
2H goals conceded
1.20
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.30N=10
Corners for
4.10N=10
2.40
Corners against
4.90
7.70
Match total
9.00
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.90N=10
For
2.70N=10
4.90
Match total
5.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.60N=10
Committed
16.90N=10
26.30
Match total
28.60
Shots
14.20N=10
Shots
9.10N=10
4.90
On target
3.00
15%
Conversion
11%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches54
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home78.8%85.2%+6.3 pp
Draw15.1%11.1%-4.0 pp
Away6.0%3.7%-2.3 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.577.8%
Over 2.555.6%
Over 3.529.6%
BTTS37.0%
Historical average
2.26–0.57
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-020.4%
1-018.5%
3-016.7%
3-19.3%
2-17.4%
Comparable corner averages
7.26–2.57
Average total9.83
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=54.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.566.7%
Over 9.555.6%
Over 10.537.0%
Over 11.525.9%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches17
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT82.4%59.0%–93.8% CI
Draw FT17.6%6.2%–41.0% CI
Away FT0.0%0.0%–18.4% CI
Remaining goals
1.47
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal88.2%
2+ goals41.2%
3+ goals17.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home88.2%
Away11.8%