Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-12 · 20:30
16.2814.7%
X4.3121.5%
21.4563.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Estoril
DWDWWWDWDL
5W 4D 1L · 1.90 PPM
Porto
WWWWWWLWDW
8W 1D 1L · 2.50 PPM
Goals
2.30
Scored
1.60
1.50
Conceded
0.60
70%
Over 2.5
50%
80%
BTTS
40%
By half
2.00
1H goals
0.80
1.80
2H goals
1.40
70%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
5.40N=10
For
4.90N=10
4.60
Against
3.40
10.00
Total
8.30
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.30
Goals scored
1.60
1.50
Goals conceded
0.60
3.80
Total goals
2.20
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Estoril attack
2.30goals per matchPorto conceded0.60Matchup
Porto attack
1.60goals per matchEstoril conceded1.50Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.10
1H goals scored
0.50
0.90
1H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.20
2H goals scored
1.10
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.40N=10
Corners for
4.90N=10
4.60
Corners against
3.40
10.00
Match total
8.30
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.00N=10
For
2.40N=10
4.00
Match total
5.40
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.80N=10
Committed
14.20N=10
23.70
Match total
28.70
Shots
12.60N=10
Shots
12.90N=10
5.10
On target
5.30
18%
Conversion
12%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches75
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home14.7%9.3%-5.4 pp
Draw21.5%10.7%-10.8 pp
Away63.8%80.0%+16.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.576.0%
Over 2.557.3%
Over 3.524.0%
BTTS48.0%
Historical average
0.76–2.03
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-224.0%
0-116.0%
0-216.0%
0-36.7%
2-24.0%
Comparable corner averages
3.48–5.63
Average total9.11
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=75.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.549.3%
Over 9.541.3%
Over 10.529.3%
Over 11.520.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT10.5%2.9%–31.4% CI
Draw FT15.8%5.5%–37.6% CI
Away FT73.7%51.2%–88.2% CI
Remaining goals
1.84
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal84.2%
2+ goals52.6%
3+ goals36.8%
Who scores in 2H
Home36.8%
Away78.9%