Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-12 · 20:30
16.2814.7%
X4.3121.5%
21.4563.8%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Estoril
DWDWWWDWDL
5W 4D 1L · 1.90 PPM
Porto
WWWWWWLWDW
8W 1D 1L · 2.50 PPM

Goals

2.30
Scored
1.60
1.50
Conceded
0.60
70%
Over 2.5
50%
80%
BTTS
40%

By half

2.00
1H goals
0.80
1.80
2H goals
1.40
70%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

5.40N=10
For
4.90N=10
4.60
Against
3.40
10.00
Total
8.30
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongAt least one second-half goal

7/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
2.30
Goals scored
1.60
1.50
Goals conceded
0.60
3.80
Total goals
2.20
80%8/10
Over 1.5
60%6/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
Over 3.5
10%1/10
80%8/10
BTTS
40%4/10
Matchup

Estoril attack

2.30goals per match
Porto conceded0.60
Matchup

Porto attack

1.60goals per match
Estoril conceded1.50
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
1.10
1H goals scored
0.50
0.90
1H goals conceded
0.30
90%9/10
Over 0.5 1H
50%5/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
1.20
2H goals scored
1.10
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.30
70%7/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
60%6/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
5.40N=10
Corners for
4.90N=10
4.60
Corners against
3.40
10.00
Match total
8.30
70%7/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
30%3/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.00N=10
For
2.40N=10
4.00
Match total
5.40
70%7/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

11.80N=10
Committed
14.20N=10
23.70
Match total
28.70

Shots

12.60N=10
Shots
12.90N=10
5.10
On target
5.30
18%
Conversion
12%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches75
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home14.7%9.3%-5.4 pp
Draw21.5%10.7%-10.8 pp
Away63.8%80.0%+16.2 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.576.0%
Over 2.557.3%
Over 3.524.0%
BTTS48.0%

Historical average

0.762.03

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-224.0%
0-116.0%
0-216.0%
0-36.7%
2-24.0%

Comparable corner averages

3.485.63
Average total9.11

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=75.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.549.3%
Over 9.541.3%
Over 10.529.3%
Over 11.520.0%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT10.5%2.9%–31.4% CI
Draw FT15.8%5.5%–37.6% CI
Away FT73.7%51.2%–88.2% CI

Remaining goals

1.84

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal84.2%
2+ goals52.6%
3+ goals36.8%

Who scores in 2H

Home36.8%
Away78.9%