Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-06 · 20:45
111.817.8%
X5.9015.6%
21.2076.6%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Casa Pia
DDLLDDDWWD
2W 6D 2L · 1.20 PPM
Benfica
DWWWDWDWWW
7W 3D 0L · 2.40 PPM

Goals

1.60
Scored
1.90
1.80
Conceded
0.60
50%
Over 2.5
70%
80%
BTTS
50%

By half

1.60
1H goals
1.00
1.80
2H goals
1.50
80%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

3.00N=10
For
7.80N=10
5.80
Against
2.50
8.80
Total
10.30
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.60
Goals scored
1.90
1.80
Goals conceded
0.60
3.40
Total goals
2.50
90%9/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
50%5/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
80%8/10
BTTS
50%5/10
Matchup

Casa Pia attack

1.60goals per match
Benfica conceded0.60
Matchup

Benfica attack

1.90goals per match
Casa Pia conceded1.80
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
1.00
1H goals scored
0.70
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.30
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
60%6/10
50%5/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
0.60
2H goals scored
1.20
1.20
2H goals conceded
0.30
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
50%5/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
3.00N=10
Corners for
7.80N=10
5.80
Corners against
2.50
8.80
Match total
10.30
50%5/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
40%4/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
70%7/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

3.00N=10
For
2.20N=10
5.70
Match total
6.00
90%9/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

17.50N=10
Committed
9.00N=10
31.20
Match total
24.80

Shots

7.70N=10
Shots
17.40N=10
2.80
On target
5.80
21%
Conversion
11%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches50
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home7.8%4.0%-3.8 pp
Draw15.6%6.0%-9.6 pp
Away76.6%90.0%+13.4 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.592.0%
Over 2.570.0%
Over 3.546.0%
BTTS52.0%

Historical average

0.682.72

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-218.0%
1-218.0%
0-410.0%
1-310.0%
0-36.0%

Comparable corner averages

2.847.28
Average total10.12

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=50.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.568.0%
Over 9.552.0%
Over 10.534.0%
Over 11.524.0%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches11
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT0.0%0.0%–25.9% CI
Draw FT18.2%5.1%–47.7% CI
Away FT81.8%52.3%–94.9% CI

Remaining goals

2.36

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal90.9%
2+ goals72.7%
3+ goals45.5%

Who scores in 2H

Home36.4%
Away90.9%