Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-06 · 18:45
12.4238.0%
X3.4426.7%
22.6135.2%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Arouca
LDLLWDLWWL
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Estoril
DWLLLWWLLW
4W 1D 5L · 1.30 PPM

Goals

1.20
Scored
1.70
1.90
Conceded
1.80
70%
Over 2.5
80%
50%
BTTS
30%

By half

1.40
1H goals
1.70
1.70
2H goals
1.80
90%
Goal in 2H
80%

Corners

3.70N=10
For
5.20N=10
6.90
Against
4.70
10.60
Total
9.90
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.70
1.90
Goals conceded
1.80
3.10
Total goals
3.50
90%9/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
80%8/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
BTTS
30%3/10
Matchup

Arouca attack

1.20goals per match
Estoril conceded1.80
Matchup

Estoril attack

1.70goals per match
Arouca conceded1.90
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.40
1H goals scored
0.80
1.00
1H goals conceded
0.90
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
90%9/10
20%2/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
0.80
2H goals scored
0.90
0.90
2H goals conceded
0.90
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
80%8/10
60%6/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
3.70N=10
Corners for
5.20N=10
6.90
Corners against
4.70
10.60
Match total
9.90
60%6/10
Over 8.5
70%7/10
60%6/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
30%3/10
Team over 4.5
50%5/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

3.70N=10
For
2.30N=10
6.50
Match total
5.00
100%10/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

14.50N=10
Committed
13.20N=10
25.20
Match total
25.80

Shots

10.40N=10
Shots
11.70N=10
4.20
On target
3.80
12%
Conversion
15%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

medium · Tier A
Comparable matches466
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home38.0%36.7%-1.3 pp
Draw26.7%31.3%+4.6 pp
Away35.2%32.0%-3.3 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.579.6%
Over 2.555.4%
Over 3.530.9%
BTTS62.2%

Historical average

1.451.36

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-115.7%
2-19.7%
1-29.0%
1-08.8%
2-27.7%

Comparable corner averages

5.234.80
Average total10.03

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=466.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.564.6%
Over 9.551.1%
Over 10.539.9%
Over 11.531.5%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches125
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT36.8%28.9%–45.5% CI
Draw FT37.6%29.6%–46.3% CI
Away FT25.6%18.8%–33.9% CI

Remaining goals

1.42

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal79.2%
2+ goals42.4%
3+ goals17.6%

Who scores in 2H

Home58.4%
Away49.6%