Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-04 · 18:00
12.4537.6%
X3.2928.0%
22.6834.4%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Rio Ave
WLDLWLLLDW
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Alverca
WLWLLLLDDD
2W 3D 5L · 0.90 PPM
Goals
1.00
Scored
1.10
1.50
Conceded
1.90
60%
Over 2.5
50%
40%
BTTS
60%
By half
1.30
1H goals
1.20
1.20
2H goals
1.80
60%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
5.20N=10
For
4.50N=10
5.40
Against
5.70
10.60
Total
10.20
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateAt least one second-half goal
6/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.00
Goals scored
1.10
1.50
Goals conceded
1.90
2.50
Total goals
3.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Rio Ave attack
1.00goals per matchAlverca conceded1.90Matchup
Alverca attack
1.10goals per matchRio Ave conceded1.50Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
0.30
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.50
2H goals scored
0.80
0.70
2H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.20N=10
Corners for
4.50N=10
5.40
Corners against
5.70
10.60
Match total
10.20
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.70N=10
For
2.60N=10
5.00
Match total
5.10
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.50N=10
Committed
10.70N=10
29.10
Match total
23.30
Shots
11.10N=10
Shots
9.40N=10
3.80
On target
3.60
9%
Conversion
12%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches862
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home37.6%35.6%-2.0 pp
Draw28.0%29.7%+1.7 pp
Away34.4%34.7%+0.3 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.571.0%
Over 2.546.5%
Over 3.522.9%
BTTS52.6%
Historical average
1.24–1.21
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-114.4%
1-010.2%
1-29.6%
0-09.4%
0-19.4%
Comparable corner averages
5.12–4.60
Average total9.72
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=862.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.562.3%
Over 9.550.7%
Over 10.538.5%
Over 11.527.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches291
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT28.9%24.0%–34.3% CI
Draw FT44.3%38.7%–50.1% CI
Away FT26.8%22.0%–32.2% CI
Remaining goals
1.33
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal72.2%
2+ goals39.9%
3+ goals15.1%
Who scores in 2H
Home50.9%
Away49.1%