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Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-04 · 15:30

Nacional

vs

Estrela

12.0545.0%
X3.3727.4%
23.3427.6%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
51020Season
Context
Home / AwayOverall
Past seasons
ExcludeInclude
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Nacional
WLLWDWDLLL
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Estrela
LWLLWLDLDL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM

Goals

1.50
Scored
1.20
1.30
Conceded
2.30
60%
Over 2.5
70%
50%
BTTS
60%

By half

1.00
1H goals
1.60
1.80
2H goals
1.90
70%
Goal in 2H
80%

Corners

4.20N=10
For
3.20N=10
6.70
Against
6.90
10.90
Total
10.10
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

strongAt least one second-half goal

7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

9/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
1.20
1.30
Goals conceded
2.30
2.80
Total goals
3.50
60%6/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
60%6/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Nacional attack

1.50goals per match
Estrela conceded2.30
Matchup

Estrela attack

1.20goals per match
Nacional conceded1.30
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.40
1H goals scored
0.50
0.60
1H goals conceded
1.10
60%6/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
1.10
2H goals scored
0.70
0.70
2H goals conceded
1.20
70%7/10
Over 0.5 2H
80%8/10
60%6/10
More goals in 2H
60%6/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.20N=10
Corners for
3.20N=10
6.70
Corners against
6.90
10.90
Match total
10.10
90%9/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
70%7/10
Over 9.5
60%6/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
20%2/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

3.40N=10
For
2.70N=10
6.40
Match total
4.90
90%9/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

13.90N=10
Committed
16.10N=10
26.50
Match total
30.90

Shots

12.60N=10
Shots
8.70N=10
4.10
On target
3.50
12%
Conversion
14%
Historical scope
AllTop 5CountryLeague
History
3y5y10yAll
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches839
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home45.0%44.5%-0.5 pp
Draw27.4%29.2%+1.8 pp
Away27.6%26.3%-1.3 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.574.4%
Over 2.548.5%
Over 3.528.1%
BTTS52.8%

Historical average

1.51–1.12

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-113.8%
1-011.3%
2-18.3%
2-07.7%
0-07.3%

Comparable corner averages

5.62–4.35
Average total9.97

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=839.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.565.1%
Over 9.552.9%
Over 10.541.6%
Over 11.530.4%
Half-time score
0-01-00-11-12-00-2Altro
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches269
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT37.5%32.0%–43.5% CI
Draw FT36.1%30.6%–42.0% CI
Away FT26.4%21.5%–32.0% CI

Remaining goals

1.42

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal77.3%
2+ goals40.1%
3+ goals16.7%

Who scores in 2H

Home56.9%
Away46.8%
Related pages

Open the teams, competition or a direct side-by-side comparison without returning to search.

Home teamNacionalForm, scoring, venue splits and recent matches.Away teamEstrelaForm, scoring, venue splits and recent matches.CompareNacional vs EstrelaCompare both teams across the same current-season window.CompetitionPrimeira LigaLeague results, averages, matchday data and coverage.RankingsPrimeira Liga team rankingsSee how teams in this competition rank across StatsXI metrics.