Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-03 · 18:00
11.7951.5%
X3.4027.1%
24.3221.3%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Guimaraes
LWDLWLWWDL
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM
Tondela
LWLDWLLLDW
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM

Goals

1.20
Scored
1.00
1.30
Conceded
1.60
60%
Over 2.5
60%
50%
BTTS
40%

By half

0.80
1H goals
1.20
1.70
2H goals
1.40
90%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

4.50N=10
For
4.60N=10
5.10
Against
5.10
9.60
Total
9.70
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.00
1.30
Goals conceded
1.60
2.50
Total goals
2.60
70%7/10
Over 1.5
70%7/10
60%6/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
20%2/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
50%5/10
BTTS
40%4/10
Matchup

Guimaraes attack

1.20goals per match
Tondela conceded1.60
Matchup

Tondela attack

1.00goals per match
Guimaraes conceded1.30
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.40
1H goals scored
0.50
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.70
40%4/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.80
2H goals scored
0.50
0.90
2H goals conceded
0.90
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
70%7/10
More goals in 2H
40%4/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.50N=10
Corners for
4.60N=10
5.10
Corners against
5.10
9.60
Match total
9.70
70%7/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
30%3/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.20N=10
For
2.80N=10
5.20
Match total
5.30
70%7/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

16.80N=10
Committed
16.70N=10
30.50
Match total
28.30

Shots

13.80N=10
Shots
10.20N=10
4.20
On target
3.50
9%
Conversion
10%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches613
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home51.5%52.2%+0.7 pp
Draw27.1%28.1%+0.9 pp
Away21.3%19.7%-1.6 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.570.1%
Over 2.546.0%
Over 3.521.9%
BTTS50.7%

Historical average

1.500.92

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-014.4%
1-112.7%
2-112.7%
2-09.0%
0-08.5%

Comparable corner averages

5.623.97
Average total9.59

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=613.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.559.9%
Over 9.548.9%
Over 10.536.9%
Over 11.526.8%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches192
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT39.1%32.4%–46.1% CI
Draw FT42.7%35.9%–49.8% CI
Away FT18.2%13.4%–24.3% CI

Remaining goals

1.24

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal72.9%
2+ goals36.5%
3+ goals11.5%

Who scores in 2H

Home56.8%
Away41.1%