Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-03-22 · 18:00
19.469.7%
X5.1717.8%
21.2772.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Alverca
WLDWLWWDDD
4W 4D 2L · 1.60 PPM
Sp Lisbon
WWWDWDWDWD
6W 4D 0L · 2.20 PPM
Goals
0.90
Scored
2.00
1.10
Conceded
0.80
30%
Over 2.5
60%
40%
BTTS
70%
By half
0.60
1H goals
1.30
1.40
2H goals
1.50
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
4.60N=10
For
7.20N=10
2.30
Against
3.20
6.90
Total
10.40
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
0.90
Goals scored
2.00
1.10
Goals conceded
0.80
2.00
Total goals
2.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Alverca attack
0.90goals per matchSp Lisbon conceded0.80Matchup
Sp Lisbon attack
2.00goals per matchAlverca conceded1.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.20
1H goals scored
1.00
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.70
2H goals scored
1.00
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.60N=10
Corners for
7.20N=10
2.30
Corners against
3.20
6.90
Match total
10.40
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.90N=10
For
3.40N=10
3.50
Match total
6.70
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.00N=10
Committed
13.50N=10
28.40
Match total
27.80
Shots
10.70N=10
Shots
14.90N=10
3.40
On target
5.70
8%
Conversion
13%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches88
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home9.7%8.0%-1.8 pp
Draw17.8%12.5%-5.3 pp
Away72.5%79.5%+7.1 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.577.3%
Over 2.551.1%
Over 3.533.0%
BTTS35.2%
Historical average
0.57–2.25
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-220.5%
0-114.8%
0-312.5%
1-38.0%
0-45.7%
Comparable corner averages
2.97–6.68
Average total9.65
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=88.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.9%
Over 9.553.4%
Over 10.537.5%
Over 11.526.1%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT15.8%5.5%–37.6% CI
Draw FT21.1%8.5%–43.3% CI
Away FT63.2%41.0%–80.9% CI
Remaining goals
1.26
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal78.9%
2+ goals31.6%
3+ goals15.8%
Who scores in 2H
Home21.1%
Away68.4%