Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-03-21 · 15:30
11.6755.2%
X3.7224.8%
24.5920.1%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Famalicao
DWLLWLWWWW
6W 1D 3L · 1.90 PPM
Nacional
WDDLDLLLLD
1W 4D 5L · 0.70 PPM

Goals

1.80
Scored
0.90
0.70
Conceded
1.50
50%
Over 2.5
50%
30%
BTTS
70%

By half

1.20
1H goals
0.80
1.30
2H goals
1.60
80%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

5.60N=10
For
3.40N=10
5.00
Against
5.30
10.60
Total
8.70
Signals

Key historical patterns

very strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
0.90
0.70
Goals conceded
1.50
2.50
Total goals
2.40
70%7/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
50%5/10
Over 2.5
50%5/10
30%3/10
Over 3.5
10%1/10
30%3/10
BTTS
70%7/10
Matchup

Famalicao attack

1.80goals per match
Nacional conceded1.50
Matchup

Nacional attack

0.90goals per match
Famalicao conceded0.70
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.40
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.40
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
60%6/10
40%4/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
1.00
2H goals scored
0.50
0.30
2H goals conceded
1.10
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
40%4/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
5.60N=10
Corners for
3.40N=10
5.00
Corners against
5.30
10.60
Match total
8.70
70%7/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.40N=10
For
2.30N=10
4.80
Match total
4.20
70%7/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

14.80N=10
Committed
14.40N=10
31.00
Match total
25.80

Shots

16.10N=10
Shots
14.30N=10
5.90
On target
4.60
11%
Conversion
6%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches759
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home55.2%58.4%+3.2 pp
Draw24.8%24.2%-0.5 pp
Away20.1%17.4%-2.7 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.575.4%
Over 2.551.4%
Over 3.527.0%
BTTS53.0%

Historical average

1.770.94

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

2-114.0%
1-111.3%
1-011.2%
2-010.1%
0-07.2%

Comparable corner averages

6.193.92
Average total10.11

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=759.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.564.3%
Over 9.553.4%
Over 10.541.5%
Over 11.532.3%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches224
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT48.2%41.8%–54.7% CI
Draw FT35.7%29.7%–42.2% CI
Away FT16.1%11.8%–21.4% CI

Remaining goals

1.37

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal75.4%
2+ goals39.3%
3+ goals16.5%

Who scores in 2H

Home60.7%
Away38.4%