Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-03-15 · 18:00
12.2641.0%
X3.3128.0%
22.9831.1%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Rio Ave
LWLDLWLLLD
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM
Estrela
DLWLLWLDLD
2W 3D 5L · 0.90 PPM

Goals

0.80
Scored
1.10
1.70
Conceded
2.10
60%
Over 2.5
60%
30%
BTTS
50%

By half

1.40
1H goals
1.50
1.10
2H goals
1.70
60%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

4.40N=10
For
3.00N=10
6.00
Against
6.40
10.40
Total
9.40
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

moderateAt least one second-half goal

6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
0.80
Goals scored
1.10
1.70
Goals conceded
2.10
2.50
Total goals
3.20
80%8/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
60%6/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
20%2/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10
30%3/10
BTTS
50%5/10
Matchup

Rio Ave attack

0.80goals per match
Estrela conceded2.10
Matchup

Estrela attack

1.10goals per match
Rio Ave conceded1.70
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.40
1H goals scored
0.50
1.00
1H goals conceded
1.00
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.40
2H goals scored
0.60
0.70
2H goals conceded
1.10
60%6/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
20%2/10
More goals in 2H
50%5/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.40N=10
Corners for
3.00N=10
6.00
Corners against
6.40
10.40
Match total
9.40
70%7/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
70%7/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
Team over 4.5
20%2/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.50N=10
For
2.80N=10
4.70
Match total
5.00
50%5/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

13.00N=10
Committed
16.20N=10
29.20
Match total
31.00

Shots

10.00N=10
Shots
8.40N=10
3.40
On target
3.50
8%
Conversion
13%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches1,393
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home41.0%43.5%+2.5 pp
Draw28.0%28.6%+0.7 pp
Away31.1%27.9%-3.2 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.571.4%
Over 2.546.5%
Over 3.525.8%
BTTS52.7%

Historical average

1.421.15

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-113.1%
1-012.3%
2-110.5%
0-18.7%
0-07.7%

Comparable corner averages

5.304.60
Average total9.90

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=1,393.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.564.7%
Over 9.553.4%
Over 10.540.6%
Over 11.531.5%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches426
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitystrong
Home FT35.9%31.5%–40.6% CI
Draw FT38.3%33.8%–43.0% CI
Away FT25.8%21.9%–30.2% CI

Remaining goals

1.27

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal74.9%
2+ goals35.4%
3+ goals12.9%

Who scores in 2H

Home53.1%
Away44.1%