Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-03-14 · 20:30
110.239.1%
X5.4916.9%
21.2574.1%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Arouca
LLDLLWDLWW
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Benfica
WDWWWDWDWW
7W 3D 0L · 2.40 PPM

Goals

1.10
Scored
2.00
1.90
Conceded
0.50
60%
Over 2.5
70%
40%
BTTS
40%

By half

1.40
1H goals
1.00
1.60
2H goals
1.50
90%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

4.20N=10
For
6.40N=10
6.00
Against
2.50
10.20
Total
8.90
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.10
Goals scored
2.00
1.90
Goals conceded
0.50
3.00
Total goals
2.50
90%9/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
60%6/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
40%4/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
40%4/10
BTTS
40%4/10
Matchup

Arouca attack

1.10goals per match
Benfica conceded0.50
Matchup

Benfica attack

2.00goals per match
Arouca conceded1.90
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.80
1.10
1H goals conceded
0.20
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
60%6/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
50%5/10
0.80
2H goals scored
1.20
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.30
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
50%5/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.20N=10
Corners for
6.40N=10
6.00
Corners against
2.50
10.20
Match total
8.90
60%6/10
Over 8.5
40%4/10
60%6/10
Over 9.5
30%3/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
60%6/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

3.40N=10
For
1.80N=10
6.40
Match total
5.20
100%10/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

14.60N=10
Committed
9.00N=10
26.30
Match total
24.80

Shots

10.00N=10
Shots
17.10N=10
3.90
On target
5.90
11%
Conversion
12%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches36
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home9.1%2.8%-6.3 pp
Draw16.9%5.6%-11.3 pp
Away74.1%91.7%+17.6 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.583.3%
Over 2.561.1%
Over 3.530.6%
BTTS36.1%

Historical average

0.502.67

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-322.2%
0-216.7%
0-116.7%
1-28.3%
1-58.3%

Comparable corner averages

3.866.58
Average total10.44

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=36.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.569.4%
Over 9.561.1%
Over 10.547.2%
Over 11.538.9%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches27
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT18.5%8.2%–36.7% CI
Draw FT22.2%10.6%–40.8% CI
Away FT59.3%40.7%–75.5% CI

Remaining goals

1.41

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal85.2%
2+ goals37.0%
3+ goals14.8%

Who scores in 2H

Home33.3%
Away70.4%