Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-03-09 · 20:15
12.0644.9%
X3.2728.3%
23.4426.9%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Tondela
DLLLLWLDDD
1W 4D 5L · 0.70 PPM
Rio Ave
DDWDWDLLLL
2W 4D 4L · 1.00 PPM

Goals

0.70
Scored
0.80
1.30
Conceded
1.80
40%
Over 2.5
60%
40%
BTTS
50%

By half

0.70
1H goals
0.90
1.30
2H goals
1.70
80%
Goal in 2H
80%

Corners

3.80N=10
For
3.60N=10
6.10
Against
8.00
9.90
Total
11.60
Signals

Key historical patterns

very strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

6/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
0.70
Goals scored
0.80
1.30
Goals conceded
1.80
2.00
Total goals
2.60
60%6/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
40%4/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
20%2/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
40%4/10
BTTS
50%5/10
Matchup

Tondela attack

0.70goals per match
Rio Ave conceded1.80
Matchup

Rio Ave attack

0.80goals per match
Tondela conceded1.30
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.30
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.60
40%4/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.40
2H goals scored
0.50
0.90
2H goals conceded
1.20
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
80%8/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
60%6/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
3.80N=10
Corners for
3.60N=10
6.10
Corners against
8.00
9.90
Match total
11.60
60%6/10
Over 8.5
100%10/10
60%6/10
Over 9.5
80%8/10
30%3/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

3.30N=10
For
2.90N=10
5.40
Match total
5.70
90%9/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10

Fouls

14.00N=10
Committed
13.50N=10
25.30
Match total
29.20

Shots

11.10N=10
Shots
7.80N=10
3.40
On target
3.00
6%
Conversion
10%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches1,058
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home44.9%43.2%-1.7 pp
Draw28.3%30.8%+2.5 pp
Away26.9%26.0%-0.9 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.573.3%
Over 2.546.7%
Over 3.525.0%
BTTS55.1%

Historical average

1.441.11

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-115.6%
2-110.7%
1-010.3%
0-08.6%
0-17.8%

Comparable corner averages

5.494.30
Average total9.80

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=1,058.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.564.2%
Over 9.551.4%
Over 10.539.4%
Over 11.529.3%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches347
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitystrong
Home FT33.4%28.7%–38.6% CI
Draw FT41.5%36.4%–46.7% CI
Away FT25.1%20.8%–29.9% CI

Remaining goals

1.30

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal73.8%
2+ goals38.3%
3+ goals13.8%

Who scores in 2H

Home55.0%
Away45.0%