Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-03-08 · 18:00
12.1343.3%
X3.1829.0%
23.3427.6%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Benfica
DWWDDWWWWW
7W 3D 0L · 2.40 PPM
Porto
WWWWWWWWLW
9W 0D 1L · 2.70 PPM
Goals
2.40
Scored
1.90
0.70
Conceded
0.30
70%
Over 2.5
50%
60%
BTTS
20%
By half
1.90
1H goals
0.90
1.20
2H goals
1.30
60%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
6.60N=10
For
6.00N=10
2.20
Against
3.00
8.80
Total
9.00
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateAt least one second-half goal
6/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.40
Goals scored
1.90
0.70
Goals conceded
0.30
3.10
Total goals
2.20
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Benfica attack
2.40goals per matchPorto conceded0.30Matchup
Porto attack
1.90goals per matchBenfica conceded0.70Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.50
1H goals scored
0.60
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.90
2H goals scored
1.30
0.30
2H goals conceded
0.00
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.60N=10
Corners for
6.00N=10
2.20
Corners against
3.00
8.80
Match total
9.00
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.90N=10
For
1.70N=10
4.30
Match total
4.80
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.70N=10
Committed
13.60N=10
29.10
Match total
28.20
Shots
17.00N=10
Shots
13.80N=10
6.50
On target
5.60
14%
Conversion
14%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches1,343
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home43.3%43.3%-0.0 pp
Draw29.0%31.7%+2.7 pp
Away27.6%24.9%-2.7 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.569.9%
Over 2.541.4%
Over 3.521.3%
BTTS50.2%
Historical average
1.34–1.01
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-115.6%
1-012.0%
0-010.1%
2-19.6%
2-08.6%
Comparable corner averages
5.14–4.23
Average total9.37
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=1,342.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.558.8%
Over 9.546.1%
Over 10.533.9%
Over 11.524.4%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches467
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitystrong
Home FT34.3%30.1%–38.7% CI
Draw FT43.7%39.3%–48.2% CI
Away FT22.1%18.5%–26.0% CI
Remaining goals
1.24
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal71.1%
2+ goals37.0%
3+ goals11.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home53.1%
Away42.6%