Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-03-07 · 20:30
11.6954.7%
X3.7724.5%
24.4320.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Estoril
WLDWDWWWDW
6W 3D 1L · 2.10 PPM
Casa Pia
WLLDLWLLDL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM
Goals
2.50
Scored
0.80
1.50
Conceded
1.80
70%
Over 2.5
60%
80%
BTTS
40%
By half
2.20
1H goals
1.00
1.80
2H goals
1.60
70%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
4.30N=10
For
4.70N=10
4.80
Against
6.80
9.10
Total
11.50
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.50
Goals scored
0.80
1.50
Goals conceded
1.80
4.00
Total goals
2.60
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Estoril attack
2.50goals per matchCasa Pia conceded1.80Matchup
Casa Pia attack
0.80goals per matchEstoril conceded1.50Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.20
1H goals scored
0.20
1.00
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.30
2H goals scored
0.60
0.50
2H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.30N=10
Corners for
4.70N=10
4.80
Corners against
6.80
9.10
Match total
11.50
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.50N=10
For
3.10N=10
4.40
Match total
5.40
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.60N=10
Committed
15.10N=10
23.50
Match total
29.30
Shots
12.60N=10
Shots
9.30N=10
5.30
On target
3.00
20%
Conversion
9%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches668
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home54.7%58.5%+3.9 pp
Draw24.5%24.0%-0.5 pp
Away20.8%17.5%-3.3 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.578.1%
Over 2.555.1%
Over 3.530.4%
BTTS55.7%
Historical average
1.87–0.97
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-112.6%
1-110.9%
2-010.2%
1-010.2%
0-06.4%
Comparable corner averages
6.06–3.93
Average total9.99
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=668.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.564.4%
Over 9.549.1%
Over 10.540.3%
Over 11.531.4%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches185
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT47.0%40.0%–54.2% CI
Draw FT35.1%28.6%–42.3% CI
Away FT17.8%13.0%–24.0% CI
Remaining goals
1.51
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal76.8%
2+ goals47.0%
3+ goals21.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home61.6%
Away41.1%