Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-03-06 · 20:15
11.7552.8%
X3.5526.0%
24.3721.2%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Famalicao
LDWLLWLWWW
5W 1D 4L · 1.60 PPM
Arouca
WLLLDLWWLL
3W 1D 6L · 1.00 PPM
Goals
1.80
Scored
1.40
0.90
Conceded
2.20
60%
Over 2.5
80%
40%
BTTS
60%
By half
1.40
1H goals
2.00
1.30
2H goals
1.60
80%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
5.60N=10
For
3.60N=10
5.30
Against
4.50
10.90
Total
8.10
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
1.40
0.90
Goals conceded
2.20
2.70
Total goals
3.60
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Famalicao attack
1.80goals per matchArouca conceded2.20Matchup
Arouca attack
1.40goals per matchFamalicao conceded0.90Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
0.70
0.50
1H goals conceded
1.30
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.90
2H goals scored
0.70
0.40
2H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.60N=10
Corners for
3.60N=10
5.30
Corners against
4.50
10.90
Match total
8.10
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.70N=10
For
2.40N=10
5.30
Match total
4.50
Over 3.5
Fouls
15.80N=10
Committed
13.30N=10
32.10
Match total
25.80
Shots
15.70N=10
Shots
10.40N=10
5.60
On target
3.00
11%
Conversion
13%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches619
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home52.8%58.6%+5.8 pp
Draw26.0%25.4%-0.7 pp
Away21.2%16.0%-5.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.573.3%
Over 2.548.0%
Over 3.525.0%
BTTS48.5%
Historical average
1.72–0.83
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-013.4%
1-112.0%
2-112.0%
2-011.5%
0-07.9%
Comparable corner averages
5.94–4.12
Average total10.07
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=619.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.564.9%
Over 9.554.1%
Over 10.544.1%
Over 11.533.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches190
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT42.6%35.8%–49.7% CI
Draw FT41.6%34.8%–48.7% CI
Away FT15.8%11.3%–21.6% CI
Remaining goals
1.32
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal74.2%
2+ goals40.0%
3+ goals13.2%
Who scores in 2H
Home62.1%
Away37.9%