Primeira Liga · 2024/25
2025-05-17 · 18:00
12.5437.0%
X3.3128.4%
22.7134.7%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Estoril
WLDWWWDLLL
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM
Estrela
LDDLWDLWLL
2W 3D 5L · 0.90 PPM
Goals
1.30
Scored
0.40
1.50
Conceded
1.00
70%
Over 2.5
0%
70%
BTTS
20%
By half
1.30
1H goals
0.50
1.50
2H goals
0.90
80%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
3.10N=10
For
3.30N=10
4.40
Against
6.30
7.50
Total
9.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.30
Goals scored
0.40
1.50
Goals conceded
1.00
2.80
Total goals
1.40
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Estoril attack
1.30goals per matchEstrela conceded1.00Matchup
Estrela attack
0.40goals per matchEstoril conceded1.50Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.20
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.70
2H goals scored
0.20
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
3.10N=10
Corners for
3.30N=10
4.40
Corners against
6.30
7.50
Match total
9.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.40N=10
For
3.20N=10
4.30
Match total
5.30
Over 3.5
Fouls
16.80N=10
Committed
15.50N=10
31.60
Match total
32.30
Shots
11.00N=10
Shots
8.90N=10
4.10
On target
2.60
12%
Conversion
4%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches925
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home37.0%34.9%-2.1 pp
Draw28.4%28.0%-0.4 pp
Away34.7%37.1%+2.4 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.573.1%
Over 2.548.2%
Over 3.524.8%
BTTS54.2%
Historical average
1.26–1.29
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-114.2%
0-110.3%
1-29.4%
1-09.3%
2-17.5%
Comparable corner averages
5.10–4.61
Average total9.71
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=925.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.564.4%
Over 9.550.9%
Over 10.538.2%
Over 11.526.4%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches295
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT30.5%25.5%–36.0% CI
Draw FT38.0%32.6%–43.6% CI
Away FT31.5%26.5%–37.0% CI
Remaining goals
1.42
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal76.9%
2+ goals41.4%
3+ goals15.9%
Who scores in 2H
Home50.8%
Away53.6%