Primeira Liga · 2024/25
2025-05-11 · 15:30
11.9149.1%
X3.4127.5%
24.0223.3%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Estrela
WWLLLDDLLW
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
AVS
DDLLDWLLLL
1W 3D 6L · 0.60 PPM

Goals

1.00
Scored
0.60
1.40
Conceded
2.30
40%
Over 2.5
40%
40%
BTTS
50%

By half

1.00
1H goals
1.60
1.40
2H goals
1.30
80%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

3.80N=10
For
3.50N=10
5.60
Against
5.40
9.40
Total
8.90
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.00
Goals scored
0.60
1.40
Goals conceded
2.30
2.40
Total goals
2.90
60%6/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
40%4/10
Over 2.5
40%4/10
20%2/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10
40%4/10
BTTS
50%5/10
Matchup

Estrela attack

1.00goals per match
AVS conceded2.30
Matchup

AVS attack

0.60goals per match
Estrela conceded1.40
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.40
0.70
1H goals conceded
1.20
50%5/10
Over 0.5 1H
60%6/10
20%2/10
Leading at HT
10%1/10
0.70
2H goals scored
0.20
0.70
2H goals conceded
1.10
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
3.80N=10
Corners for
3.50N=10
5.60
Corners against
5.40
9.40
Match total
8.90
60%6/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
40%4/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
20%2/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

3.70N=10
For
2.90N=10
5.30
Match total
4.60
80%8/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

17.70N=10
Committed
14.60N=10
32.80
Match total
29.00

Shots

8.90N=10
Shots
8.60N=10
2.90
On target
2.10
11%
Conversion
7%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches847
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home49.1%48.4%-0.7 pp
Draw27.5%30.9%+3.4 pp
Away23.3%20.7%-2.7 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.570.5%
Over 2.543.3%
Over 3.522.0%
BTTS50.2%

Historical average

1.460.93

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-114.9%
1-011.3%
2-111.1%
0-09.8%
2-09.3%

Comparable corner averages

5.623.91
Average total9.53

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=846.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.558.9%
Over 9.546.5%
Over 10.536.9%
Over 11.525.9%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches285
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT35.1%29.8%–40.8% CI
Draw FT43.5%37.9%–49.3% CI
Away FT21.4%17.0%–26.5% CI

Remaining goals

1.26

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal70.9%
2+ goals37.5%
3+ goals12.6%

Who scores in 2H

Home51.9%
Away42.8%