Primeira Liga · 2024/25
2025-05-10 · 18:00
12.1543.7%
X3.4027.6%
23.2828.7%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Benfica
WWLWWWWWDW
8W 1D 1L · 2.50 PPM
Sp Lisbon
LDDWDDWWWW
5W 4D 1L · 1.90 PPM
Goals
2.90
Scored
2.30
0.80
Conceded
1.00
90%
Over 2.5
70%
40%
BTTS
50%
By half
2.00
1H goals
1.60
1.70
2H goals
1.70
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
7.50N=10
For
4.60N=10
3.80
Against
3.60
11.30
Total
8.20
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
9/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.90
Goals scored
2.30
0.80
Goals conceded
1.00
3.70
Total goals
3.30
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Benfica attack
2.90goals per matchSp Lisbon conceded1.00Matchup
Sp Lisbon attack
2.30goals per matchBenfica conceded0.80Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.60
1H goals scored
1.20
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.30
2H goals scored
1.10
0.40
2H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
7.50N=10
Corners for
4.60N=10
3.80
Corners against
3.60
11.30
Match total
8.20
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.40N=10
For
2.70N=10
3.30
Match total
6.40
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.60N=10
Committed
13.10N=10
21.60
Match total
28.50
Shots
18.70N=10
Shots
15.00N=10
8.20
On target
6.20
16%
Conversion
15%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches351
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home43.7%42.5%-1.3 pp
Draw27.6%29.6%+2.0 pp
Away28.7%27.9%-0.7 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.574.4%
Over 2.551.9%
Over 3.529.9%
BTTS55.6%
Historical average
1.48–1.22
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-113.1%
1-011.4%
2-19.1%
0-07.4%
0-16.8%
Comparable corner averages
5.53–4.55
Average total10.07
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=350.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.568.6%
Over 9.554.6%
Over 10.541.4%
Over 11.532.9%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches102
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT37.3%28.5%–46.9% CI
Draw FT40.2%31.2%–49.9% CI
Away FT22.5%15.5%–31.6% CI
Remaining goals
1.29
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal74.5%
2+ goals38.2%
3+ goals12.7%
Who scores in 2H
Home55.9%
Away41.2%