Primeira Liga · 2024/25
2025-05-10 · 15:30
11.9647.9%
X3.5126.7%
23.7025.4%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Nacional
LWWLDWWLLL
4W 1D 5L · 1.30 PPM
Rio Ave
LLDWDLLLWL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM

Goals

1.40
Scored
0.80
1.50
Conceded
1.30
70%
Over 2.5
40%
60%
BTTS
50%

By half

1.50
1H goals
1.00
1.40
2H goals
1.10
70%
Goal in 2H
60%

Corners

4.40N=10
For
2.90N=10
5.20
Against
5.30
9.60
Total
8.20
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateAt least one second-half goal

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.40
Goals scored
0.80
1.50
Goals conceded
1.30
2.90
Total goals
2.10
90%9/10
Over 1.5
70%7/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
40%4/10
30%3/10
Over 3.5
0%0/10
60%6/10
BTTS
50%5/10
Matchup

Nacional attack

1.40goals per match
Rio Ave conceded1.30
Matchup

Rio Ave attack

0.80goals per match
Nacional conceded1.50
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
0.20
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.80
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
40%4/10
Leading at HT
10%1/10
0.50
2H goals scored
0.60
0.90
2H goals conceded
0.50
70%7/10
Over 0.5 2H
60%6/10
60%6/10
More goals in 2H
40%4/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.40N=10
Corners for
2.90N=10
5.20
Corners against
5.30
9.60
Match total
8.20
70%7/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
10%1/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.30N=10
For
2.60N=10
5.40
Match total
5.20
70%7/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10

Fouls

12.90N=10
Committed
13.30N=10
26.10
Match total
29.60

Shots

15.20N=10
Shots
11.20N=10
4.50
On target
4.00
9%
Conversion
7%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches887
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home47.9%46.1%-1.8 pp
Draw26.7%28.0%+1.2 pp
Away25.4%25.9%+0.6 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.572.8%
Over 2.549.0%
Over 3.524.8%
BTTS51.6%

Historical average

1.501.07

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-112.2%
1-011.4%
2-19.8%
0-08.2%
2-08.0%

Comparable corner averages

5.604.37
Average total9.97

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=887.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.564.7%
Over 9.552.8%
Over 10.541.6%
Over 11.531.5%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches283
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT37.1%31.7%–42.9% CI
Draw FT38.5%33.0%–44.3% CI
Away FT24.4%19.7%–29.7% CI

Remaining goals

1.34

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal74.2%
2+ goals38.5%
3+ goals15.9%

Who scores in 2H

Home53.4%
Away43.8%