Primeira Liga · 2024/25
2025-05-04 · 18:00
12.0545.9%
X3.3328.3%
23.6425.8%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Arouca
LWDWDDLDLW
3W 4D 3L · 1.30 PPM
Casa Pia
LWWWLLLLDD
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM

Goals

0.90
Scored
1.20
1.10
Conceded
1.50
20%
Over 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
60%

By half

0.50
1H goals
1.10
1.50
2H goals
1.60
100%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

5.10N=10
For
3.60N=10
4.60
Against
5.90
9.70
Total
9.50
Signals

Key historical patterns

very strongAt least one second-half goal

10/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
0.90
Goals scored
1.20
1.10
Goals conceded
1.50
2.00
Total goals
2.70
70%7/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
20%2/10
Over 2.5
50%5/10
10%1/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
50%5/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Arouca attack

0.90goals per match
Casa Pia conceded1.50
Matchup

Casa Pia attack

1.20goals per match
Arouca conceded1.10
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.10
1H goals scored
0.40
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.70
50%5/10
Over 0.5 1H
60%6/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.80
2H goals scored
0.80
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.80
100%10/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
70%7/10
More goals in 2H
50%5/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
5.10N=10
Corners for
3.60N=10
4.60
Corners against
5.90
9.70
Match total
9.50
70%7/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
30%3/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
30%3/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.80N=10
For
1.60N=10
4.00
Match total
4.60
60%6/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

16.80N=10
Committed
14.60N=10
30.20
Match total
27.50

Shots

12.10N=10
Shots
8.50N=10
4.50
On target
3.20
7%
Conversion
14%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches703
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home45.9%47.8%+1.9 pp
Draw28.3%27.6%-0.7 pp
Away25.8%24.6%-1.2 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.568.3%
Over 2.542.2%
Over 3.523.3%
BTTS48.9%

Historical average

1.440.97

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-013.9%
1-113.1%
2-19.8%
2-09.4%
0-09.0%

Comparable corner averages

5.384.26
Average total9.64

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=703.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.560.5%
Over 9.548.5%
Over 10.536.4%
Over 11.528.2%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches234
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT39.7%33.7%–46.1% CI
Draw FT39.7%33.7%–46.1% CI
Away FT20.5%15.8%–26.1% CI

Remaining goals

1.27

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal73.1%
2+ goals36.3%
3+ goals12.0%

Who scores in 2H

Home55.6%
Away38.5%