Primeira Liga · 2024/25
2025-04-27 · 15:30
12.2042.8%
X3.0331.0%
23.5926.2%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Moreirense
WLDDLWDWDL
3W 4D 3L · 1.30 PPM
Nacional
LLDLLWLLLW
2W 1D 7L · 0.70 PPM

Goals

1.10
Scored
0.70
1.40
Conceded
1.50
50%
Over 2.5
40%
60%
BTTS
30%

By half

1.30
1H goals
1.10
1.20
2H goals
1.10
60%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

3.40N=10
For
4.30N=10
4.50
Against
7.40
7.90
Total
11.70
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateAt least one second-half goal

6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.10
Goals scored
0.70
1.40
Goals conceded
1.50
2.50
Total goals
2.20
80%8/10
Over 1.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
Over 2.5
40%4/10
20%2/10
Over 3.5
10%1/10
60%6/10
BTTS
30%3/10
Matchup

Moreirense attack

1.10goals per match
Nacional conceded1.50
Matchup

Nacional attack

0.70goals per match
Moreirense conceded1.40
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
0.30
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.80
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
40%4/10
Leading at HT
10%1/10
0.20
2H goals scored
0.40
1.00
2H goals conceded
0.70
60%6/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
3.40N=10
Corners for
4.30N=10
4.50
Corners against
7.40
7.90
Match total
11.70
60%6/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
30%3/10
Over 9.5
60%6/10
20%2/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.50N=10
For
2.40N=10
5.70
Match total
3.80
80%8/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10

Fouls

15.60N=10
Committed
13.80N=10
31.20
Match total
27.80

Shots

11.10N=10
Shots
11.30N=10
3.40
On target
3.40
10%
Conversion
6%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

medium · Tier A
Comparable matches454
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home42.8%41.0%-1.8 pp
Draw31.0%34.1%+3.1 pp
Away26.2%24.9%-1.3 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.568.9%
Over 2.537.7%
Over 3.520.3%
BTTS49.1%

Historical average

1.280.99

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-117.2%
1-012.1%
0-010.6%
2-09.7%
0-18.4%

Comparable corner averages

5.354.25
Average total9.60

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=454.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.559.3%
Over 9.548.0%
Over 10.536.8%
Over 11.526.2%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches159
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT32.1%25.3%–39.7% CI
Draw FT47.8%40.2%–55.5% CI
Away FT20.1%14.6%–27.0% CI

Remaining goals

1.28

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal69.8%
2+ goals41.5%
3+ goals11.9%

Who scores in 2H

Home53.5%
Away43.4%